533
FXUS61 KBOX 162300
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
600 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON,
DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAY FINALLY BRING MUCH NEEDED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINS OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WE'LL SEE A DROP OFF OF THE
GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT. THIS, AS THE LINGERING LLJ WILL BE LARGELY KEPT
ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE WATER WHERE GUSTY
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS DIP INTO THE
30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. THIS MEANS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR SUNDAY WHILE SUNNY
SKIES STICK AROUND. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY, DESPITE
THE WEAKER WIND, WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S SO A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SUNDAY
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED BY A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDCOVER BUT
LIKELY LITTLE TO NO RAIN GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING DOWN
FROM CANADA SWEEPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY PRECIP FOR A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, BUT THE COLUMNS LOOKS TO BE VERY DRY SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 925 HPA TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE RATHER MILD FOR MID-LATE NOVEMBER IN THE 5 TO 10
CELSIUS RANGE. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AIR TO SETTLE
OVER THE REGION, THUS THE MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A MILD AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F AT
THE SURFACE. COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME 20+ MPH WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS RH AT A MINIMUM OF 50% ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPRESS FIRE WEATHER ACTIVITY, BUT GIVEN HOW DRY IT'S BEEN
LATELY, THE GUSTY WINDS ARE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN. WE'LL BE MONITORING
THE HUMIDITY PORTION OF THE FORECAST CLOSELY TO DETERMINE IF FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ADVECTS A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THUS WE CAN
EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WELL, THUS WE
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A QUIET TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS/LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND MID 30S
RESPECTIVELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN US LATE WEEK AS A
ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS AND DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A LOW-
PRESSURE CENTER WELL BELOW 1000 HPA. THIS SYSTEM MAY GIVE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IT'S BEEN WAITING FOR. THERE IS
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FOR A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS NEAR A HALF
AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THIS
WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO MAKE UP RECENT DEFICITS IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE
WELCOME GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
COOLER/UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LOW MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN THE 5 TO 7 DAY TIME RANGE, THE
SPECIFICS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM ARE VAGUE, BUT WE'LL HAVE MORE
INFORMATION AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
VFR. SCT CLOUDS 5-10K FT AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN MA AND CAPE
COD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW GUSTS 20-25 KT TODAY, PERHAPS A FEW G30
KT HIGHER TERRAIN. NW WIND 5-15 KT TONIGHT AND 10-15 KT SUNDAY
WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. LIGHT W WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
NW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ON ALL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF SNE.
HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 20-30
MPH COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE 15
TO 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE
CAPE/ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY ON SUNDAY WITH RH VALUES LOWERING TO
20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM CAPE COD. LESS WIND
IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OUR STATE FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE DANGER IS MOST LIKELY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK DURING THE LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY, A BIT
LOWER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGH TIDE REACHING JUST UNDER 12 FT
MLLW AT BOSTON. LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE JUST UNDER 1 FT WOULD BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO MINOR FLOOD LEVEL TO CAUSE SPORADIC NUISANCE
COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG N AND NE FACING
BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST
COASTAL MA FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RM
MARINE...KJC/BW
FIRE WEATHER...KJC/BW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BW
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