447
FXUS61 KBOX 151055
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
555 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
355 AM UPDATE...
* SUNSHINE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID-HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
* HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
THE VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER TODAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THE COAST. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO
START THE DAY...BUT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SOME MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE DAY
WEARS ALONG. AFTER A VERY COLD START EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD RECOVER TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* LIGHT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT ICING OVERNIGHT-MON AM ACROSS INTERIOR
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD TO SPRINGFIELD METROS
* MAINLY DRY LATER MON AM/MON AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE 32
DETAILS...
TONIGHT & MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL WORK
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN ON APPROACH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN OUR REGION WILL BE QUITE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF ANY
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO WORCESTER AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THAT
BEING SAID...WE DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD
SOUTHWEST MA INTO NORTHERN CT WHICH INCLUDES THE HARTFORD TO
SPRINGFIELD METRO AREAS IN THE 1 AM TO 5 AM TIME FRAME. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PTYPE WILL BE RIGHT ON THE FENCE BETWEEN LIGHT
SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOME OF THE LIFT IS
DEPICTED BELOW THE LEVEL OF ICE NUCLEATION AS WELL...SO THERE COULD
BE FREEZING DRIZZLE WHERE THE ENTIRE THERMAL PROFILE IS STILL BELOW
FREEZING.
ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A DUSTING TO
1" OF SNOW AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE. THAT BEING SAID...JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS/ICE TRAVEL. THEREFORE...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MON AM COMMUTE. THIS INCLUDES THE HARTFORD TO SPRINGFIELD METRO
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM REALLY DRIES UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND DID NOT WANT TO TAKE THE ADVISORY ANY FURTHER
EASTWARD AT THIS POINT. IN FACT...THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE QUICKLY
MOVES TO OUR SOUTH SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER LATER MON AM AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK FREEZING BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WITH THE MILDER READINGS ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
* TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED
UNSETTLED PATTERN.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A STOUT LLJ JET HELPING TRANSPORT
A PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (200-250% OF
NORMAL). THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. FOR AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLES ARE RANGING FROM .25" TO
.50" MOSTLY WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A HALF
AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 50S WHICH KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SIMPLE..RAIN.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DRY OUT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH W/WSW FLOW ALOFT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE,
RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. THESE VALUES ARE A TOUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
NO TIME TO WASTE WITHIN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A CONSENSUS ON THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
AND TIMING ARE LESS CERTAIN WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS.
A BETTER IDEA OF THE TRACK WILL ALSO HELP WITH AMOUNTS AS WELL AS
PRECIPITATION TYPE. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE INTERIOR, BUT ALSO DEPENDENT ON SYSTEM TRACK. DETAILS WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER.
FRIDAY - WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A DEEP TROUGH TO
POSITION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLE INTO THE REGION SUPPORT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL SYSTEMS IN THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE ARE
HINTS ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THERE HAS BEEN NOTABLE RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN
SYSTEM POTENTIAL/TRACK AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WELL, BUT
THAT'S PRETTY NORMAL THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LIGHT NNW WINDS BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAINING LIGHT.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS EVENING THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO MON.
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING DESPITE THICKENING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR WITH EVEN LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES AFTER 6Z AND
PERSIST INTO MON. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA AND
CT OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MON. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ON RUNWAYS WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL MID-LATE MON MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
SURVIVE EAST OF A WORCESTER TO PROVIDENCE LINE AND CONDITIONS
MAY REMAIN MAINLY VFR ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO MON
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MON AM AS A BRIEF MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS TODAY MOVES EAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. RAIN LIKELY.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ009-011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...FRANK/MENSCH
MARINE...FRANK/MENSCH
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