800
FXUS61 KBOX 160641
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
141 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH MILDER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
10 PM UPDATE:
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
STATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN REPORTING ANY SNOW SO FAR. THIS ISN'T TOO
SURPRISING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT MORE EAST AND
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MORE
LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THERE IS
STILL THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND MORNING INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
KEY MESSAGES:
* LIGHT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT ICING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE REST OF TODAY REMAINS DRY AND COLD, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS ON ITS
APPROACH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR GOING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1030-1036 MB, BUT SOME ISENTROPIC
ASCENT COULD HELP PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO GET THIS
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. THE SHORTWAVE'S MEETING WITH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THIS REASON, GENERALLY A COATING OF SNOW
LOOKS THE MOST POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
0.03". THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
HARTFORD METRO AREA UP INTO THE SPRINGFIELD METRO. REGARDLESS,
ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EARLY MORNING COULD MAKE FOR A
HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP MOST OF THE NIGHT DRY BEFORE 09-10Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THEN THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF I-495 AND WEST OF THE
WORCESTER AREA, BUT SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR. AREAS NORTH OF
THE SPRINGFIELD METRO CAN EXPECT SNOW AS THE MAIN PTYPE FOR THIS
EVENT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, 20S FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO CRAWL UP ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* LIGHT WINTRY MIX/LIGHT ICING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR
* MAINLY DRY LATER MON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING
* MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT
DETAILS...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE POTENT HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE TO OUR
EAST, THINKING PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST. BY THIS
POINT, LIGHT SNOW MOST LIKELY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO
HAMPSHIRE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
FROM THE PIKE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CT. EVEN LOWER RISK FOR SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY, WITH FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHERN RI.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EITHER TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES OR SIMPLY END BY MID MORNING FOR MOST.
DID MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT AS PRECISE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT FARTHER EAST. THIS IS A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO
THINKING PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY, TRENDING BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A RAINY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-LIVED
DRYING TREND BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
* TRENDING COOLER/DRIER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LATEST SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SUBTLE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A WET FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPORTING CLEARING AND A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY, RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PREVAILING WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY AND MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, SO WE'RE NOT
ANTICIPATING BLOCKBUSTER RAINFALL, BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS ARE COMING IN AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH, SO WE DO EXPECT
A PRETTY GOOD SOAKING. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, WE EXPECT
CLEARING/DRYING OUT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL/BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS. EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY LATE NEXT WEEK/EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS RESOLVE A COASTAL STORM IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REVEALS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMOUNT POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN POTENTIAL PRECIP/WINTER WEATHER IS LOW, THERE IS MORE
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS, HAVE LEANED ON NBM
FOR GUIDANCE WHICH PLACES SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A RISK FOR SNOW
AS WELL, WITH NBM PROBS OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE'LL HAVE MORE
INFORMATION AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STAY
TUNED FOR THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE (PRECIP TYPE, CIGS. AND EASTWARD
EXTEND OF AM PRECIP)
SHOWERS EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS. ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS AS -SN, THEN
TRANSITIONS TO FZRA TOWARD 12Z ACROSS NORTHERN CT INTO HAMPDEN
COUNTY MA AND INTO RI. ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE A GLAZE-LIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF AS YOU GO
FURTHER EAST OF WORCESTER-PROVIDENCE LINE.
LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BECOMING IFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN/CAPE TERMINALS VFR INTO AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS IFR DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. BY
THIS POINT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING,
PRODUCING RAINFALL REGION-WIDE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE
A BRIEF MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
FROM A "GLAZE" TO A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE. TRACE OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGES OVER.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA,
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. RAIN.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN, CHANCE OF SNOW.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ009-011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233-
234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-
237-250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RM
NEAR TERM...HRENCECIN/MENSCH
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...FRANK/MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/RM
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