833
FXUS61 KBOX 162009
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
309 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH THE REST OF THE DAY TURNING OUT DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INT THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE BY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
* SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
A GRAY WINTER DAY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION ISN'T ACTIVELY SEEING WET WEATHER, SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BETWEEN FORCING FEATURES. A STALLED BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING SOME
BETTER FORCING FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF RI/CT AND THIS IS WHERE WE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE BETTER WARM
FRONTAL FORCING TONIGHT.
THIS WARM FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT HERALDING
THE RETURN OF MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES...BY SUNRISE THOSE IN RI AND
EASTERN MA SHOULD BE SITTING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ACCOMPANYING
THOSE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING
IN ON WARM FRONTAL LIFT AND THE EMERGING LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL
SQUEEZE OUT A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN, SAVE FOR
SOME 30-40% CHANCES ALONG COASTAL RHODE ISLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRYING OUT AND MUCH WARMER TUESDAY.
BY MID MORNING TUESDAY MUCH OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED OR IS JUST
EXITING FAR EASTERN MA AS THE TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST AND MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. WHILE WE'LL START THE DAY CLOUDY,
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS SNE. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SUN AS THE MILD S/SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH PART OF
THE DAY, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FOR
COMPARISON, THE AVERAGE WOULD BE THE LOW TO MID 40S. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP IN FROM NW TO SE LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR BY LATE TUE AND FOR SOUTHEAST MA
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EVEN THESE LOWS (30S) WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH WEAK RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, FEATURING THE PASSAGE
OF SEVERAL SYSTEMS ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
* ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO REGION BY END OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE DOES NOT SHOW THE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTLING DOWN
MUCH. HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS INTO THURSDAY, THEN
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS, SUCH AS TIMING AND LOCATION, LOWERS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL THEME LOOKS CONSISTENT, BUT THE TIMING MAY
CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.
GENERALLY EXPECTING TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST. THE FIRST LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE SECOND SOME TIME FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY RAINFALL WITH THIS FIRST EVENT, WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM,
WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. SNOW APPEARS TO BE MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA AND AN
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. STILL A LOT OF THINGS TO BE RESOLVED WITH
LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY, THEN SHOULD TREND
BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER DOMINATES WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TRENDING TO THE SE AT UNDER 10 KNOTS LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MAINLY IFR LEVELS TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. S WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND WE DO EXPECT SOME GUSTS NEAR
25 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LLWS WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE LAST OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY MID-MORNING OR SO ON TUE. OTHERWISE...MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER TOWARDS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
RA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SN,
RA LIKELY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL INDUCE A MODEST
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT INTO TUE. DESPITE THE INVERSION OVER
THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...STILL EXPECT SW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
STARTING TO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED MOST WATERS
TONIGHT INTO TUE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W WINDS 15-20 KTS, DECREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. SEAS 2-5 FT DECREASING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
RAIN LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN
LIKELY, CHANCE OF SNOW. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW, CHANCE OF RAIN.
VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/BW
MARINE...BELK/BW
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