167
FXUS61 KBOX 140540
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1240 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN MODIFY TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE WORKWEEK,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
935 PM UPDATE...
* DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH
A BRIEF SPOT FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER OR TWO HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH SKIES
GENERALLY MOST CLEAR OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRATO-CU-CU SPILLING
OVER THE BERKS. A COLDER WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR BEHIND THIS
EVENING/S COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* TURNING COLDER AND BLUSTERY.
COLDER AIR MAKES MORE OF A PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES AND A
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT W TO NW
FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN THE TREND FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BECOMING MUCH DRIER, SO LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. OCEAN-
EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED-THURS.
* TEMPS THEN MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER.
* NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT UNTIL THE WEEKEND?
DETAILS:
DRY WEATHER WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR WED AND THURS WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING REINFORCED BY THE
EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY COMING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN CENTRAL CANADA. THIS AIRMASS DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE AS COLD AND ALSO NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS LAST WEEK'S
SHOT OF COLD AIR; HOWEVER, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO
NEAR FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS.
TEMPERATURES THEN MODIFY BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MID 30S TO
LOW 40S), ALTHOUGH IT MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD
COVER.
OVERALL THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY A DRY ONE. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND,
AS A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS PER CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH BRING WEAK/SHEARED-OUT
500 MB VORT ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE MID-ATLC
AND NORTHEAST BUT THIS IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CHANCE POP FOR TIMING-DEPENDENT SNOW-TO-RAIN SHOWERS SAT
AND SUN AND THEN ADJUST PENDING TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BRIEF GUSTS APPROACHING 35
KNOTS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH- GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
BRING A WINDSHIFT TO WNW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
20-25 KT TOWARD EARLY TUE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF
ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING
SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...BELK/LOCONTO
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