735
FXUS61 KBOX 141305
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
805 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY BUT BLUSTERY AND COLDER WEATHER MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TODAY AND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER
COLD...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MOVES OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES...
PARTICULARLY BY SATURDAY. A FEW MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE THEN WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THAT
WILL DEPEND UPON A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAA STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE A
HANDFUL OF SURFACE STATIONS SO FAR WITH INCREASING NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 MPH. AS CAA CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
HIGHER NW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A COOL AND WINDY TODAY OVERALL WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT COOLER THAN MONDAY
WITH HIGHS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS
(UPPER 20S-LOW 30S). MOISTURE WILL BE IN LOW SUPPLY, BUT THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY
ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
TONIGHT:
NW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH AND UP TO 35
MPH FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ELEVATED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER TO
START THE NIGHT WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING TOO
MUCH. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL NIGHT REGARDLESS GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COAST. GIVEN THE
BREEZIER CONDITIONS, WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
WEDNESDAY:
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT AND A
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AIRMASS OVERHEAD. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS ADDITIONAL CAA
WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS FOR THE
OUTER WATERS OFF THE CAPE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* STILL COLD THU BUT WITH LESS WIND...HIGHS UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S
* MILDER FRI & ESP SAT WHEN A FEW MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
* TURNING COLDER LATER SUN INTO MON WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW?
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER COLD...BUT WITH DIMINISHING
WIND WED NIGHT INTO THU. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS...BUT A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING
LOCATION MAY SEE LOWS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE.
HIGH TEMPS ON THU WILL STILL BE COLD IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER
30S...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE LESS WIND THAN WHAT WE WILL BE DEALING
WITH TODAY AND WED.
WE SHOULD MENTION THAT WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS MOVE INTO LATER
THU INTO THU EVENING WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.
PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF PASSING FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT IT WILL
GENERALLY COME THROUGH DRY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC FRI INTO SAT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON FRI AND
PROBABLY WELL INTO THE 40S BY SAT. IN FACT...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPOTS REACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK ON SAT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL ON FRI...BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ON SAT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION INTO QUEBEC...BUT IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN BEST DYNAMICS PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH...JUST
LOOKING AT A FEW SHOWERS SAT AND NOT A LOT OF RAIN BY ANY MEANS.
PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY LIQUID EXCEPT THE DISTANCE INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE A FEW WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONSIDERABLE COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
REGION SOMETIME LATER SUN INTO MON. THIS IS RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A -EPO WITH RIDGING INTO
NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS ALLOWS BITTERLY COLD AIR TO DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL
LIKELY PASS TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WE STILL SHOULD TURN CONSIDERABLY
COLDER WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER
SUN INTO MON. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN INTO
THE ATLANTIC WHICH MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT DROPPING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING SNOW
LATER SUN INTO MON IF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST. THE EPS/GEFS/CMC INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY. SOME OF THE MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OVER RUNNING SNOW...WHILE OTHER MEMBERS ALLOW DRY AND VERY COLD AIR
TO SUPPRESS THIS POTENTIAL. WE WILL NEED A FEW MORE DAYS TO HAVE A
BETTER IDEA...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS LATER THIS
MORNING. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
WINDS STAY ELEVATED TONIGHT WITH W/WNW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH- GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
*UPDATED 805 AM TUE *
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY THROUGH WED:
W/NW WINDS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FASTER SO BUMPED UP THE STARTING
TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. GUSTS
WILL MORE LIKELY RANGE 25-30 KTS; HOWEVER, SOME MAY HOVER NEAR
GALE THRESHOLDS FOR PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN
INCREASED NW WINDS AND DROPPING AIR TEMPERATURES.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO
3 NM.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...MENSCH
SHORT TERM...MENSCH
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/MENSCH
MARINE...FRANK/MENSCH/JWD
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