378
FXUS61 KBOX 150224
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
924 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A PASSING FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. MONITORING
POTENTIAL STORMINESS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS LARGE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
925 PM UPDATE...
* BLUSTERY & COLD OVERNIGHT, LOWS UPPER TEENS-LOWER 20S
* WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES COUPLED WITH LARGE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE BLUSTERY &
COLD WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THE WIND WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPDATED: 205 PM TUE
KEY MESSAGES:
* CONTINUED BLUSTERY AND COLD.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR WED AND WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MAINTAINS A BRISK W/NW FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY IS ON TAP WED WITH
FREQUENT 20-30 MPH GUSTS. PATTERN FAVORS BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT
CLOUDINESS/SNOW SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MA. AIRMASS IS
COLD, BUT NOT UNUSUALLY SO FOR MID JANUARY, WITH HIGHS WED IN
20S TO LOWER 30S.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AWAY FROM COAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD
COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEENS FOR MOST
OF SNE, BUT SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN WESTERN MA AND CLOSER TO 20
NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPDATED 205 PM TUE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* ONE FINAL DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURS.
* TEMPS MODIFY TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND,
BUT LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER.
* PASSING RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SAT, BUT MONITORING
POSSIBLE STORMINESS AROUND SUN NIGHT/MON.
DETAILS:
ALTHOUGH STILL SUNNY AND DRY, STILL LOOKING AT ONE FINAL DAY OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURS (E.G. HIGHS MID 20S TO NEAR
FREEZING). WE THEN TRANSITION TO A BRIEF WARMING TREND TO TEMPS AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD
BE A CONSIDERABLE AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE MODERATING
TEMPS. BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 30S
WITH A FEW LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND. AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN GRADUALLY BLEED
INTO THE REGION ON NW WINDS.
OVERALL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRY ONE. IT'S NOT
UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN POPS INCREASE TO HIGHER END OF CHANCE, IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE VORT MAXIMA COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A RELATED SHIELD OF PRECIP (MAINLY IN FORM OF
RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS) SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE INDICATIONS IN THE ENSEMBLES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SEPARATING THE
MILDER AIR NEAR THE COAST FROM THE FRIGID/ARCTIC AIR IN THE EAST-
CENTRAL CONUS THAT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN AN ANAFRONTAL-
TYPE LOW CONFIGURATION. THIS IS HINTED AT MORE IN THE INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE THAN THE GFS. THAT COULD BRING A POTENTIAL LIGHT-
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IF THE INTERNATIONAL
SOLUTIONS WERE TO BE MORE CORRECT, BUT THERE'S STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING, LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE INITIATING
WAVE AS IT COMES AROUND THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE MENTION FOR SUN
NIGHT/MON, BUT IT IS OTHERWISE TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE SPECIFICS
WITH ANY DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAFS UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OTHER THAN SCT-BKN MVFR OCEAN EFFECT CEILINGS NEAR HYA/ACK
OVERNIGHT TO MID-DAY WED, VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WED NIGHT. MAIN
ISSUE IS CONTINUED GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH WED, WITH FREQUENT
25-30KT GUSTS, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AWAY FROM COAST
TONIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS
(GUSTS UPPER 20S KT RANGE).
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH- GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
UPDATED: 205 PM TUE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH WED EVENING WITH
FREQUENT 25-30KT GUSTS AND PROBABLE LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
NEARSHORE. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE ARE A FEW 35KT GUSTS ON OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BUT WE DON'T THINK IT WILL
LAST LONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY GALE WARNINGS.
LATER IN THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 TO
3 NM.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-
232>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO/JWD
MARINE...LOCONTO/JWD
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