418
FXUS61 KBOX 150950
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
450 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BLUSTERY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WHILE IT WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND RESULTS IN MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SHOT OF BITTERLY COLD AIR FOLLOWS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING BELOW ZERO.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
* COOL AND BLUSTERY TODAY
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS ARE MARGINALLY BREEZY OR ELEVATED
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AN AREA OF OCEAN-EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OVER THE OUTER CAPE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS BROUGHT A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS DISSIPATING.
ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. MOISTURE WILL BE IN
LOW AMOUNTS; HOWEVER, NW FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT OCEAN-EFFECT
BANDS OFFSHORE OF THE CAPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
* CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY PM,
MAINLY FOR SOUTH COAST.
TONIGHT:
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKER WINDS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. A FEW OF
THE HIGHER SPOTS IN WESTERN MA MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THURSDAY:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO LIGHT SW. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY DURING
THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE ADVECTS IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. BY EARLY
EVENING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY FRI WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
* MILDER SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S & SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
* PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LIKELY SUN PM-MON AM
* ARCTIC AIR WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS MON NIGHT INTO TUE
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. IT WILL
MAINLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH JUST A PERIOD OF CLOUDS...BUT A FEW BRIEF
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WITH COLD
WSW FLOW AND 850T AT OR BELOW -10C. EITHER WAY SHOULD NOT BE A BIG
DEAL. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO THE LOWER
20S.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRI. THIS
WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...SO IT WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY FOR JANUARY STANDARDS.
SATURDAY...
THIS WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THIS COAST. THIS ALLOWS A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925T
MODERATE TO NEAR 0C AND WITH GUSTY SW WINDS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 40S AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SPOTS HIT
50 DEGREES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF RAINFALL BY ANY MEANS THOUGH AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY CROSSED THE REGION BY SUN
IT WILL TAKE SOMETIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THINKING WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON SUN.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE SUN INTO MON AM. WHAT EXACTLY
UNFOLDS WILL DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF AN ANAFRONTAL WAVE. THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE EPS/GEFS/CMC INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS WAVE TRACKS TO THE COAST WILL
DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE DEALING WITH A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. WE STILL NEED ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO UNTIL WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL
OUTCOMES. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON IN THE COMING DAYS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO
TUE WITH 850T DROPPING INTO THE -23C/-24C RANGE. LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT
WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF OF THE REGION.
HIGHS ON TUE MAY NOT BREAK 20 ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW ZERO MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH THIS
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WIND GUSTS OF 25-30+ KNOTS REDEVELOPING THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SHRA
LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SN,
SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH- GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH END OF WEEK.
GUSTY W/NW WINDS THROUGH WED EVENING WITH FREQUENT 25-30KT
GUSTS AND PROBABLE LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY NEARSHORE. WINDS
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KTS BY MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS 3-7 FEET FOR MOST OF THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH 2-5 FEET FURTHER WEST. WAVES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LIGHT SW WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
232>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...MENSCH
SHORT TERM...MENSCH
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/LOCONTO/MENSCH
MARINE...FRANK/MENSCH
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