086
FXUS61 KBOX 160021
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
721 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIP STARTS AS ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET, THEN RAIN NEAR THE COAST, AND FREEZING
RAIN INLAND. A COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. COLD AND DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
COASTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINTS
* LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
SNOW TOTALS RANGE FROM 2-6 INCHES SOUTH OF RT 2 TO 4-8 NORTH
OF RT 2.
* SNOW TURNS TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION RANGE FROM 0.15 TO 0.35
INCHES WEST OF I-495
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POOR
DRAINAGE AND STREET FLOODING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES
FORECAST REMAINED LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO BRING THE FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING VISIBILITY TO DROP MARKEDLY LATE THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG WAA AHEAD OF A 980MB
SURFACE LOW WILL BRING JUST ABOUT EVERY PRECIP TYPE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN THIS EVENING, ALLOWING P-TYPE
TO START AS SNOW. ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES SHOW
UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN AERIAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS BETTER MOISTURE AND QPF
ARRIVE. MODELS SHOW DECENT 850MB FGEN THIS EVENING, LEADING TO
SNOW RATES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES PER HOUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MA. BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS, EXPECT 4- 8 INCHES ALONG AND
NORTH OF ROUTE 2, WITH 2-6 INCHES SOUTH OF ROUTE 2 TO THE SOUTH
COAST. AS THE STRONG WAA CONTINUES, TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 3KFT TO
9KFT WARM, WELL ABOVE FREEZING, WHILE REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
FROM THE SURFACE TO 3KFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SLEET LATE OVERNIGHT, MOVING NORTH THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL QUICKLY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING, ALLOWING
SLEET TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WITH MINIMAL FREEZING RAIN
CONCERNS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY IN LOW
SPOTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, COLD AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO SCOUR
OUT. THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLY SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN,
WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION OF TRACE TO .35 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. ANY
FREEZING RAIN COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FALLEN HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL LEAD TO SNOW/ICE LOAD ISSUES ON TREES AND POWER LINES.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS STRONG WINDS ENTER THE REGION WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES, WITH 2.5 TO 3 INCHES
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST, WHERE 100-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE COULD INDUCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AND ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE
RAIN FALLING ON TOP OF THE WET, SLUSHY SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
POOR DRAINAGE AND MINOR STREET FLOODING. MMEFS ALSO SHOWS LOW
PROBS FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING IN SOUTHERN RI.
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, A STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE INTERIOR.
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN RI, CT, AND SE MA.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, HIGHS STAY IN THE 30S AS COLD AIR STRUGGLES
TO SCOUR OUT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, KICKING THE REMAINING PRECIP OFFSHORE AND DROPPING TEMPS
QUICKLY INTO THE 20S. ANY STANDING WATER THAT DOES NOT EVAPORATE
WILL FREEZE BY MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONTINUED
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS MONDAY
* HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT
DETAILS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH IT, TAKING TEMPERATURES
DOWN FROM THE 40S INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. SUBSIDENT FLOW FROM
THE WEST WILL DRY THE AREA, BUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE
GROUND ONCE THE COLD AIR FLOWS IN MAY QUICKLY FREEZE, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
THAT MIXES UP TO THE 850 MB LAYER, WHERE WINDS ARE APPROACHING
60 TO 65 KTS IN SOME AREAS DUE TO A STRONG JET SITTING ALOFT.
IF MIXING DOES OCCUR TO THIS HEIGHT, THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS (BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS). ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE'VE
OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND WILL EVALUATE ANY WARNING
OR ADVISORY DECISIONS IN UPCOMING UPDATES.
STRONG WINDS AND MIXING OF THE COLD WEATHER ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN IT IS, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE NEGATIVES, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS DURING THE
DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ALSO LIKELY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDY
CONDITIONS BRING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15F MONDAY NIGHT.
* MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM WED-THU.
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE MOVES PAST THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECTING IT WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY DURING THIS TIME,
BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE DAKOTAS WILL NOSE EASTWARD
TOWARD OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
STILL HAVE LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SEEING SIGNS FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE, BUT THE TRACK AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN. LATEST
CLIMATOLOGICAL ANOMALIES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, WHICH MAY
BE THE RESULT OF DISPARATE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS GOING INTO THE
MEAN SOLUTION. WITH COLD AIR ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE AND AN
OFFSHORE TRACK, THIS IS LOOKING LIKE MAINLY SNOW AT THIS TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PROJECTED STORM OVER THIS COMING
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT:
SNOW MAY BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY OVERNIGHT WITH 1/2IN TO 1.0 IN
PER HOUR SNOW RATES AT TIMES. IFR/LIFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH HEAVIER
SNOW. SNOW TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SLEET FROM 06Z-12Z
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG SLEET
LASTS BEFORE TURNING OVER TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
SUNDAY
FOR COASTAL AREAS, SLEET SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH MINIMAL
FREEZING RAIN. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT
OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN, FREEZING RAIN FALLOWS THE SLEET, AND
LASTS UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z. IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. FREEZING RAIN
COULD LAST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN 22Z-02Z, QUICKLY ENDING ANY
REMAINING PRECIP AND RAINING CIGS BACK TO VFR. VERY WINDY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MODERATE AFTER.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. MODERATE
AFTER.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PUT IN EFFECT FOR
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY, WHEN STORM WATCHES TAKE EFFECT.
SUSTAINED WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT PICK UP CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTH, REACHING UP TO 40 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE
MARINE ZONES (AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS YOU MOVE FURTHER OUT
TO SEA). WINDS PICK UP IN A SECOND BURST FROM THE WEST WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS AROUND 06Z
MONDAY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY
ALSO APPROACH 20 FEET IN THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS ALL THE MARINE ZONES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH
SEAS UP TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF SNOW. AREAS OF VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ010-011-
013>021.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MAZ002>024-026.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ002>009-012-
026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/HRENCECIN/KP
NEAR TERM...BELK/KP
SHORT TERM...HRENCECIN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KP
MARINE...BELK/HRENCECIN
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