291
FXUS61 KBOX 161459
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
959 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND
RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY STRONG
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS MONDAY.
WINDS DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
STILL MONITORING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT MAY BRING US
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10 AM UPDATE
STILL SEEING REPORTS OF SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
ESSPICALLY NEAR THE NH AND VT BORDER AS THERMAL PROFILES STILL
SHOW THE 1KFT-3KFT LAYER BELOW FREEZING. EVEN WITH SURFACE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, SLEET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MIX
IN WITH RAIN UNTIL ABOUT THE NOON TIME HOUR. RADAR IS SHOWING
THE DRY SLOT STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CT AND MA WHICH WILL
BRING A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE LULL AS LOW LEVEL PROFILES
REMAIN SATURATED. BEHIND THE DRY SLOT IS ACTUALLY SOME WEAK
CONVECTION AS 100-200 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUILDS NORTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE OFF AND ON POPCORN SHOWERS THAT COULD BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING, THUS WILL
LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
TRIMMING UP THE ADVISORY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES...
* SNOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN
FOR MOST.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE AND
STREET FLOODING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
WE'RE IN THE THICK OF THIS WINTER STORM, GENERALLY ON TRACK IN THE
EXPECTED CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO AN ICY MIX WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR
850 MB WARM NOSE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A WORCESTER TO BOSTON LINE
REMAIN SNOW AT THIS HOUR WITH MOSTLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
REPORTED AT ASOS SITES THROUGHOUT CT, RI, AND SOUTHEAST MA. THIS
TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH, FINALLY REACHING ESSEX COUNTY
BY 7-8AM. SURFACE TEMPS PUSHING ABOVE FREEZING THEN FOLLOW BEHIND
THE ICY MIX FOR MOST, SO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE FREEZING RAIN
CONTINUES, ADDING UP TO AS MUCH A THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ON
TOP OF THE SNOW. IT'S AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, AND GIVEN
PWATS IN THE 1.3" RANGE WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ OVERHEAD, WE WILL EASILY
SEE 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ON TOP OF ANY SNOW THAT WE GET. THIS ALONG
WITH MELTING SNOW MAY LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
ISSUES. TEMPERATURE-WISE WE'RE LOOKING AT A STARK CONTRAST FROM THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR (LOW 30S) TO SOUTHEAST MA (TOUCHING
50). THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG LLJ OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST PRE FRONTAL INVERSION
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST GUSTS FROM BEING MIXED DOWN.
HOWEVER, IF SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE ABLE TO PULL SOME OF THAT
WIND DOWN WE MAY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS OF VERY STRONG OVER THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
* MUCH COLDER ON MONDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD AS WE GO INTO MONDAY PLACING SNE
UNDER COLD NW FLOW. THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS KICKS IN BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS WHEN WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME VERY WELL MIXED COINCIDENT WITH A 50-60 KT
JET AT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN OF
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME, SO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS AS STRONG AT 55
MPH. 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM +8C ON SUNDAY TO -16C MONDAY LEADING TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES COLDER, IN THE 20S. COMBINED
WITH THE WIND IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -
10F MONDAY NIGHT.
* MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE WEDS-THURS.
DETAILS:
MONDAY NIGHT:
THE HIGHER GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY EVENING, BUT GUSTS WILL
STILL PLAY A FACTOR IN HOW CHILLY IT WILL FEEL OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS
RANGING FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO AS LOW AS -5F.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY; HOWEVER, NOT AS STRONG AS MONDAY
AS 850MB WINDS WEAKEN. THE WELL BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 20S.
WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AGAIN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX INTO WEDNESDAY TRENDING
WINDS DOWNWARD. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGINS TO MODERATE AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS IN, "WARMING" HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE PATTERN DECREASE LATE NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A POTENTIAL COASTAL
LOW FORMING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND GENERALLY IN THE LATE WEDS TO THURS TIMEFRAME. PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS
RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE
TRACK/TIMING.
AS THE TRACK VARIES AMONG SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS, THIS WILL IMPACT
WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION WILL BE AND HOW
MUCH. WITH A COLD PATTERN IN PLACE, THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN SNOW IF
THE TRACK FAVORED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR MORE CONSISTENT TRENDS.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
TODAY:
TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS BY ABOUT 12Z. CAN'T
RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BEFORE FULL TRANSITION
TO RAIN. ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT OUTSIDE THE HIGH TERRAIN,
FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWS THE SLEET, AND LASTS UNTIL ROUGHLY 15Z.
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FREEZING RAIN COULD LAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN 22Z-03Z, QUICKLY ENDING ANY
REMAINING PRECIP AND RAINING CIGS BACK TO VFR. VERY WINDY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, MAINLY WITH EXACT TIMING
OF THE CHANGE TO RA.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF, MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGE TO RA.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. STRONG WINDS WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINTER STORM CONTINUES TODAY, SHIFTING WINDS MORE TO THE EAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN PUT IN EFFECT FOR 06Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY, WHEN STORM WARNINGS AND GALE WARNINGS TAKE
EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT PICK UP CONSIDERABLY FROM
THE SOUTH, REACHING UP TO 40 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 50+ KNOTS
IN THE MARINE ZONES (AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER OUT TO SEA). WINDS PICK UP IN A SECOND BURST FROM THE
WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WATERS
AROUND 06Z MONDAY. SOME SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY ALSO APPROACH 20 FEET IN THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS ALL THE MARINE
ZONES MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: GALE FORCE WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
ROUGH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF SNOW. VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ010-
011-013>021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ005>007-013>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>009-012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
RIZ001>003-006>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ231>237-251.
SYNOPSIS...BW/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...BW/KP
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH
MARINE...BW/MENSCH
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