086
FXUS61 KBOX 162045
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
345 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
MONDAY. WINDS DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. STILL MONITORING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT
MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. NOTABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY POINT
* FREEZING RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 45-55MPH
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE RISE FALL
COUPLET ACCOMPANIED BY THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BURST OF WEST
WINDS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 45-55MPH. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
CRASH BEHIND, GOING FROM THE MID-30S TO UPPER-40S, DOWN TO THE MID-
TEENS TO MID-20S. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR,
HELPING DRY OUT SOME OF THE WATER FROM TODAYS RAINS, BUT ANY
STANDING PUDDLES WILL LIKELY FREEZE BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES
THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD STANDING WATER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OF 55-65MPH
* VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES AT OR BELOW 0F MONDAY
NIGHT.
VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS CAA AND A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. A ROBUST
850MB JET AROUND 50-60 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY,
BECOMING STRONG OVER NE MA MONDAY EVENING WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE LLJ COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 70 KNOTS. 925MB WINDS ARENT QUITE AS
ROBUST, STAYING AROUND 35-45 KNOTS. THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE RECEIVE
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY DETERMINE IF THE MIXING POTENTIAL CAN REACH
THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AT 850MB. HREF CLOUD COVER SHOWS THERE
SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER MIXED LAYER UP TO 850MB ACROSS MUCH OF MA,
WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER 850MB WINDS, LED TO THE EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE NE COASTLINE. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65MPH ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA. FURTHER SOUTH IN CT, RI, AND SE MA, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED
MIXING STRUGGLING TO REACH THAT 850 MB LEVEL, THUS DID NOT UPGRADE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WINDS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL STILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST AT 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 55MPH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY, THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE 850MB JET REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY, STILL AROUND 35-45MPH WITHOUT DIURNAL HEATING TO
PROMOTE MIXING. THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO NEAR -10F AND
COASTAL AREAS NEAR 0F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS WEEK.
* WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-10F MONDAY NIGHT.
* MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
DETAILS:
RATHER QUIET PERIOD TO BEGIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, COURTESY
OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS WILL MEAN DRIER CONDITIONS, IT
WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE MOST LIKELY PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH. HOW CLOSE THIS STORM GETS TO OUR REGION WILL BE A CRITICAL
DETAIL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, BUT THE WINDOW STARTED TO NARROW WITHIN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. LOOKING AT SOME TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS COLD AS WE SHOULD BE BY THEN, NOT CONCERNED ABOUT
MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE ALL SNOW. NOW THE FOCUS IS
ON FIGURING OUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE SEE AND WHERE.
ONCE THIS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY, WE STAY WITHIN MORE OF A CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW FRIDAY. THE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
USA BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
REST OF TODAY:
SNOW AND SLEET HAVE MOSTLY ENDED WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS WITH
FREEZING RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. IFR/LIFR
CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PICKS UP FROM
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
OVER THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME VERY GUSTY
OUT OF THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING AT 40-50
KNOTS.
TONIGHT:
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REMAINING PRECIP AND IFR CIGS OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 23Z-02Z. CIGS QUICKLY POP
UP TO MVFR THEN VFR. WINDS TURN WEST AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND
30-40 KNOTS.
SUNDAY:
VFR AND VERY WINDY. WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO 60
KNOTS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT:
VFR. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST AT 35-45 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IFR/LIFR. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SHEAR FROM THE SW INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 40-60 KNOTS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 01Z LIFTING CIGS BACK TO VFR AND
DRYING OUT ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS. VERY WINDY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE .
IFR/LIFR. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND SHEAR FROM THE SW INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 30-50 KNOTS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z LIFTING CIGS BACK TO VFR AND
DRYING OUT ANY REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS. VERY WINDY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 40-50KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS STRONG WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45
KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60 KNOTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS, RISING TO 10-15 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS,
AND 4-8 FEET IN CAPE COD BAY, MVY SOUNDS, AND NANTUCKET SOUND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WELL OUT INTO
THE OPEN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE AT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, OR REVERT TO AN
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SNOW LIKELY. VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW,
CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ010-
011.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MAZ017>024.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ002>004-008-009-012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MAZ005>007-013>016.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ230-231-250-251-254>256.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232>237.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KP
MARINE...BELK/KP
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