154
FXUS61 KBOX 170552
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1252 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT BRINGS
VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY. ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 20S.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
MONDAY. WINDS DECREASE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. STILL MONITORING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT
MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK. NOTABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY POINT
* FREEZING RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 45-55MPH
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR ANOTHER 3 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM UPSTREAM INDICATED A FINAL BURST OF SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT LATE THIS EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS SHOULD BEING TO INCREASE.
BROUGHT THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT THIS EVENING. A STRONG PRESSURE
RISE FALL COUPLET ACCOMPANIED BY THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BURST OF WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 45-55MPH.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CRASH BEHIND, GOING FROM THE MID-30S TO
UPPER-40S, DOWN TO THE MID- TEENS TO MID-20S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR, HELPING DRY OUT SOME OF THE WATER
FROM TODAYS RAINS, BUT ANY STANDING PUDDLES WILL LIKELY FREEZE
BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD STANDING
WATER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS
* HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS OF 55-65MPH
* VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES AT OR BELOW 0F MONDAY
NIGHT.
VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS CAA AND A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND.
A ROBUST 850MB JET AROUND 50-60 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY, BECOMING STRONG OVER NE MA MONDAY EVENING WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE LLJ COULD REACH UPWARDS OF 70 KNOTS.
925MB WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS ROBUST, STAYING AROUND 35-45
KNOTS. THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE RECEIVE TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE IF THE MIXING POTENTIAL CAN REACH THOSE HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT AT 850MB. HREF CLOUD COVER SHOWS THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY HOW MUCH SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEPER MIXED LAYER UP TO 850MB ACROSS MUCH OF MA, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER 850MB WINDS, LED TO THE EXPANSION OF
THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE NE COASTLINE. EXPECTING SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65MPH ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA. FURTHER SOUTH IN CT, RI, AND SE MA, BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWED MIXING STRUGGLING TO REACH THAT 850 MB LEVEL, THUS DID
NOT UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WINDS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL STILL BE SUSTAINED FROM THE WEST AT
15-25MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55MPH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ON
MONDAY, THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE 850MB JET REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY, STILL AROUND 35-45MPH WITHOUT DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE MIXING. THE WIND CHILL INDEX WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP OVERNIGHT, WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS GETTING DOWN TO NEAR
-10F AND COASTAL AREAS NEAR 0F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS WEEK.
* WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -10F MONDAY NIGHT.
* MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY.
DETAILS:
RATHER QUIET PERIOD TO BEGIN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THIS WILL MEAN
DRIER CONDITIONS, IT WILL ALSO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LOW PRESSURE MOST LIKELY PASSING TO
OUR SOUTH. HOW CLOSE THIS STORM GETS TO OUR REGION WILL BE A
CRITICAL DETAIL IN DETERMINING IMPACTS. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK, BUT THE WINDOW STARTED TO
NARROW WITHIN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. LOOKING AT SOME TIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS COLD AS WE SHOULD BE BY
THEN, NOT CONCERNED ABOUT MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE ALL SNOW. NOW THE FOCUS IS ON FIGURING OUT HOW MUCH SNOW WE
SEE AND WHERE.
ONCE THIS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY, WE STAY WITHIN MORE OF A
CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW FRIDAY. THE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL USA BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE
EARLY THIS MORNING:
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS REGION WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND
IT WITH GUSTS 40-50 KTS. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS 2500-3500 FT
(HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR).
TODAY:
VFR AND VERY WINDY. WINDS GUSTING 40-50 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO
60 KNOTS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS SPILL OFF THE TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN MA
EXTENDING EASTWARD AT 4000-6000 FT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY:
VFR. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST AT 35-45 KNOTS. WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WEST GUSTS
30-40 KTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN THIS EVENING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS STRONG WESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45
KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55-60 KNOTS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS, RISING TO 10-15 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS,
AND 4-8 FEET IN CAPE COD BAY, MVY SOUNDS, AND NANTUCKET SOUND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WELL OUT INTO
THE OPEN WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH A LOW CHANCE AT HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DECIDE TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, OR REVERT TO AN
ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT: STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. ROUGH SEAS
UP TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SNOW LIKELY. VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF SNOW,
CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ005>007-
013>016.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-250-251-
254>256.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>237.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KP
NEAR TERM...BELK/KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/KP
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