935
FXUS61 KBOX 172026
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
326 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND WIND CHILL INDEX
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. STILL MONITORING A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM
THAT MAY BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN OFFSHORE MISS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
KEY POINTS
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
* BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0F AND -15F
THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT CROSSED OVER SNE YESTERDAY BOMBED OUT
INTO A 958MB LOW PER THE 18Z WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THIS IS THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS THE DRIVER FOR THE 60-
70MPH WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. NOT MUCH REPRIEVE
FROM THE WIND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. 850 MB
WINDS TONIGHT REMAIN AROUND 50-60 KNOTS (ROUGHLY 60-70MPH). EVEN
WITHOUT DIURNAL HEATING, CAA WILL STILL PROMOTE MIXING ENOUGH MIXING
TO ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 45-55MPH TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS, WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 0F TO -15F BELOW ZERO. OPTED TO
ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HIGH TERRAIN IN THE BERKS AND
NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS. HREF SHOWS 80-100% PROBS OF -15F WIND
CHILLS, WITH LOW PROBS OF 0-20% FOR -25F WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* STRONG WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY, FINALLY WEAKENING TUESDAY EVENING *
BITTERLY COLD ALL DAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN +5F AND -5F
850MB LLJ REMAINS STRONG TUESDAY MORNING AT 50-60 KNOTS BUT BEGINS
TO WEAKEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO 40-50 KNOTS. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AGAIN, MIXING POTENTIAL SHOULD REACH, IF NOT EXCEED, THE
850MB LEVEL AGAIN. BUFKIT SOUNDS SHOW UP TO 55 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. OPTED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES, EVEN
IF GUSTS ARE QUITE AS STRONG AS MONDAY, EXPECTING 45-55MPH GUSTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY OPT TO
DOWNGRADE THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND ADVISORY AFTER THE THREAT
OF 60-70MPH WINDS ENDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO TOP 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH LOW 20S NEAR THE COASTS. THE
WINDCHILL INDEX STAYS NEAR 0F ON TUESDAY, MAKING IT FEEL BITTERLY
COLD OUT.
THE 850MB LLJ FINALLY DISSIPATES TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS OF 20-40MPH CONTINUING. VERY COLD AGAIN WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND WIND CHILL INDEX IN
BETWEEN 0F AND -15F AGAIN. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* CALMER WINDS, BUT FRIGID TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO TRACK SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURS/FRI... COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO SURFACE WINDS DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY... POSSIBLY EVEN
PUSHING GUSTS BELOW 10MPH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS LOOK TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO TREND ON
THE COLDER SIDE... SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN MA, LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA, AND NEAR
20 FOR THE FAR EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL LOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
REMAINS HIGH. STEERING FLOW CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE LOW WILL
REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC; HOWEVER, ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS, AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THE FURTHEST EAST. REGARDLESS, THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST 1" (>50% PROB ACROSS
ECMWF, GFS, AND GEM) OF SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY, BRINGING CALMER WEATHER AND DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S. POSSIBLY COULD BE ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE COAST FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BRINGING WINTRY PRECIP, BUT WILL CONTINUE
MONITORING AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE
REST OF TODAY:
VFR AND VERY WINDY. WINDS GUSTING 45-55 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO
65 KNOTS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS SPILL
OFF THE TERRAIN ACROSS WESTERN MA EXTENDING EASTWARD AT
4000-6000 FT.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
VFR. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST AT 40-45 KNOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH SOME TUESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO
25-35 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 50 KNOTS CONTINUE THOUGHT
THIS EVENING. WINDS REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS OF 40-45 KNOTS.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 45 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH AREAS OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERLY WATERS AND
50-60 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS IN THE OPEN WATERS
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO 10-15 FEET, WHILE CAPE COD BAY, AND THE
SOUNDS WILL SEE WAVES OF 5 TO 8 FEET. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
NOW MOVING OVER THE WATERS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
20S, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME A CONCERN STARTING THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEAR AND OFF SHORE WATERS.
WINDS HARDLY RELENT TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS LIKELY.
WINDS FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO
20-30 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ017>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MAZ002>016-026.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MAZ002-004-008-009-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-250-251-
254.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...MCMINN/KP/RM
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...MCMINN/RM
AVIATION...MCMINN/KP/RM
MARINE...MCMINN/KP/RM
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