848
FXUS61 KBOX 181504
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1004 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. IT
STILL WILL BE COLD WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND. A COASTAL
STORM MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TRENDING MILDER
AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* WINDY AND VERY COLD TODAY. HIGHS MAINLY LOWER-MIDDLE 20S
* A BRIEF SPOT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS. PERMITTED THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. WIND CHILLS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE
AS LOW AS 0F TO -10F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
KEPT A MENTION OF A STRAY SNOW SHOWER FROM A LAKE EFFECT STREAM
THAT WAS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS. NOT MUCH TOO THIS BAND
EAST OF THE BERKSHIRES, BUT DO ANTICIPATE NOT MUCH MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FOR MOST ACROSS WESTERN MA INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SUB 970 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND WINDY
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 15 BELOW ZERO INTO MID
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST READINGS IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS. DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, 850T
NEAR -20C WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TODAY WITH SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MARITIMES WILL BRING A WNW
LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KNOTS. THE VERY COLD TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXCELLENT
MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WINDY. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
BERKS AND WORCESTER HILLS.
LASTLY, STRONG/VERY COLD WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW A LONG LAKE
EFFECT STREAMER TO SURVIVE FOR A TIME INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MA/CT TODAY. IF THIS OCCURS, WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED BUT IS A
POSSIBILITY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15
ABOVE
* WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 TO 10 BELOW OVERNIGHT
* PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WED, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND AND HIGHS
25-30
DETAILS...
TONIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH A BIT, BUT IT STILL WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL NOT BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE THOUGH WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. NONETHELESS,
LOWS TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ELSEWHERE. ENOUGH WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE THRESHOLDS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
WEDNESDAY...
A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHTS RISING A BIT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED.
WHILE TEMPS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD, WE DO EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RECOVER A BIT INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A LOT LESS WIND. STILL A BIT
OF A BREEZE, BUT MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK, THEN
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS COMING WEEKEND.
* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND THE
ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM.
* LESS ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND, LESSER CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: EXPECTING A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION WITH "WARM"
AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, CAPE COD, AND THE ISLANDS, IT
IS HERE THE LOWS DIP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. NOT MUCH WIND
TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES ANY FURTHER, THOUGH THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH WIND IN THE BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS TO
MAKE IT FEEL BETWEEN 0F AND -10F, SHY OF THE CRITERIA FOR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THEN TRAVEL NNE, PASSING
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE TO LIMIT PTYPE TO SNOW, THANKS
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH/WEST. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. AT CURRENT, THE 00Z SET OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSE BRUSH, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF
RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS, WHICH INCLUDES, THE ISLANDS AND
CAPE COD. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM12KM, THIS WOULD BRING THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO SHORE AND MORE QPF. WORTH A MENTION, BUT NOT A
LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT. FWIW, ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS THE DESI PROBABILITY OF 3" OR MORE OF SNOW DURING A 24
HOUR PERIOD ARE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT. FURTHER INLAND, AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE, THERE ARE
LOW PROBABILITIES, LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR 1" OR GREATER OF
SNOW DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, DRAWS IN COLDER AIR AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, OUTSIDE OF A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, THERE IS A DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MID- LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, THIS HELPS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S. WILL WATCH A TRAILING TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LATE ON SUNDAY,
WHILE THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED, CAN NOT RULE OUT A
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNS OF
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER 40S. AS FOR THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THERE REMAINS TOO
MUCH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, LEANED ON THE NBM FOR
POPS, WHICH HAS CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR, OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A BRIEF LOCALIZED FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO PERSIST IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY:
VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTS EARLIER ON
20 TO 25 KTS, BUT SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 15 KTS LATE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...
* GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
* FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING WED
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH W WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGER OF THESE WINDS
WILL BE TODAY, STILL EXPECT GALE FORCE GUSTS TO PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DROP ENOUGH ON WED SO THAT
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES WILL BE ABLE TO REPLACE THE CURRENT GALE
WARNINGS.
IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS, EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY INTO MID MORNING
WED. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ003-005>007-
010>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-004-
008-009-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
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