043
FXUS61 KBOX 181832
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
132 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WINDS START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. IT STILL WILL BE
COLD AND GUSTY WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND. A COASTAL
STORM MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TRENDING MILDER
AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* A BRIEF SPOT SNOW SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT INTO
THIS EVENING
* BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15
ABOVE ZERO
* WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT,
AND FARTHER FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH SOME.
IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY, SO DESPITE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY, NOT
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ON A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SHOULD WINDS
SLACKEN FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WOULD
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN LOWER DUE TO A RELATIVELY FRESH
SNOWPACK AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.
ENOUGH WIND PRESENT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 0 AND 10 BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
THE THRESHOLDS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WED, BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STILL GUSTY BUT MORE TYPICAL FOR OUR REGION THAN THE HIGH
GUSTS WE'VE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO TICK UP A NOTCH DURING THE DAY, BUT BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE IT EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10-15 DEGREES CONTINUE. STILL
NOT THINK WE'LL NEED ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT THIS WILL
BE MONITORED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK,
THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS COMING WEEKEND.
* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD, AND THE
ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COASTAL SYSTEM.
* LESS ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND, LESSER CONFIDENCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THEN TRAVEL NNE, PASSING
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD HAVE
ENOUGH COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE TO LIMIT PTYPE TO SNOW, THANKS
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH/WEST. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. AT CURRENT, THE 00Z SET OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSE BRUSH, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF
RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS, WHICH INCLUDES, THE ISLANDS AND
CAPE COD. THE OUTLIER IS THE NAM12KM, THIS WOULD BRING THE
SYSTEM CLOSER TO SHORE AND MORE QPF. WORTH A MENTION, BUT NOT A
LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT. FWIW, ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS THE DESI PROBABILITY OF 3" OR MORE OF SNOW DURING A 24
HOUR PERIOD ARE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT. FURTHER INLAND, AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE, THERE ARE
LOW PROBABILITIES, LESS THAN 30 PERCENT FOR 1" OR GREATER OF
SNOW DURING A 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, DRAWS IN COLDER AIR AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS, ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, OUTSIDE OF A LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, THERE IS A DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. MID- LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, THIS HELPS TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
30S. WILL WATCH A TRAILING TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LATE ON SUNDAY,
WHILE THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED, CAN NOT RULE OUT A
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SIGNS OF
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOWER 40S. AS FOR THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER, THERE REMAINS TOO
MUCH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, LEANED ON THE NBM FOR
POPS, WHICH HAS CHANCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR, OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A BRIEF LOCALIZED FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER
ACROSS WESTERN MA/CT. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WIND GUSTS DIMINISH BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS TO PERSIST IN
THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTS EARLIER ON
20 TO 25 KTS, BUT SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 15 KTS LATE AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY:
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...
* GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
* FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING WED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH W WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DROP
ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SO THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ABLE TO GRADUALLY REPLACE THE GALE WARNINGS.
EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH WHERE NO MARINE
HEADLINES SHOULD BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE
WATERS, EXPECT AREAS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY INTO MID MORNING
WED. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
SNOW, CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM OR LESS.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
FREEZING SPRAY.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ003-005>007-
010>024.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002-004-
008-009-026.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...BELK/DOOLEY
MARINE...BELK/DOOLEY
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