348
FXUS61 KBOX 210842
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
342 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSES
EAST OF THE MARITIMES AND THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE CARDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
SOMETIME TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY...BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, BREEZY & COLD TODAY...HIGHS 30-35
PERHAPS A FEW PASSING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES INTO MID-MORNING
ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE. OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY AND
COLD DAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...925T NEAR -10C WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
ELSEWHERE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DIMINISHING WIND & COLD TONIGHT...LOWS SINGLE DIGITS & TEENS
* PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 30S
DETAILS...
TONIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO
THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS IN WESTERN
MA MAY SEE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DROP TO AROUND ZERO GIVEN THE
SNOWPACK.
SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SAT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BE THE
START OF THE MODERATING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 925T NEAR -6C/-7C AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEB...BUT MILDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE INTO THE 40S, PERHAPS A FEW NEAR 50F NEXT WEEK.
* A COUPLE OF NUISANCE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETTER CHANCE FOR A
MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, LESS THAN 0.25". WHILE A STRAY
SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, DO THINK IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN. RATHER, WE'D EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS,
FOLLOWED BY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL SUN MIDDAY. WITH THE
ADDED CLOUD COVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER AS DRASTICALLY AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER
20S A THE COAST. FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S, WHICH IS ON TARGET FOR THE NORMALS FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY: IN GENERAL, QUIET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A NUISANCE SYSTEM HERE AND THERE, BUT A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM COULD BE ON THE HORIZON BY LATE WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE THE MORE NOTICEABLE PART OF THE FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL. SHOULD NOTICE INCREASING TEMPERATURES MONDAY, THOUGH
IT WILL NOT BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE LOWER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MID-30S
WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN ARE IN THE LOW-40S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
SPREAD ACROSS THE 40S, PERHAPS NEAR 50F ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. DESI HAVE LOW/MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF MAXT
SURPASSING 50F BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT. THURSDAY HAS POTENTIAL TO
BE AS WARM, BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM. NIGHTLY LOWS ARE STILL COLD, BUT A FAR CRY FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, MOST NIGHTS NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S. NOW, IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF NUISANCE SYSTEMS, MAINLY WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT COME THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW. ONE COMES THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO PREDAWN
TUESDAY, ANOTHER PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND WILL BECOME MORE IRONED OUT.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.
LOOKING QUIETER SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD, THE END OF
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING ACTIVE, AS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORM TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. NOW THERE IS STILL A TON OF
UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE TRACK, WHAT PTYPES ARE INVOLVED,
AND EXACT TIMING. POUNDS OF TIME TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. FEW AREAS OF -SN OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH 09Z, OTHERWISE
DRY. NW WINDS 8-12 KNOTS, GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. GUSTY NW WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS,
HIGHEST OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS BECOME W 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A RESULT OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
PASSING EAST OF THE MARITIMES...WILL GENERATE NW WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS. WE ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR WATERS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
237-251.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
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