120
FXUS61 KBOX 220829
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
329 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY TO MID WEEK AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH INTO THE 50S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
TUESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY TURNS COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 30S
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH LESS WIND THAN
YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925T ON THE ORDER OF
-6C WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE WSW
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* JUST SOME CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S
* PARTLY SUNNY SUNDAY & MILDER...HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 40-45
DETAILS...
TONIGHT...
A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OTHER
THAN A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.
SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE WITH MILDER TEMPS. THE
INCREASING LATE FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE WITH 925T BETWEEN -4C/-5C SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO BETWEEN
40 AND 45 ELSEWHERE. BASED ON THE PATTERN RECOGNITION/TIME OF
YEAR...GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEARED TOO COOL AND WE INCREASED THEM A FEW
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COUPLE OF NUISANCE SYSTEMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETTER CHANCE FOR A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
* WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, THEN
FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS DISCUSSED THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS NEXT WEEK FEATURES MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, DARE SAY IT MAY FEEL A BIT
LIKE EARLY SPRING? NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE THE
MAIN FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT RIDE THROUGH, WITH A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS. AS WE APPROACH
THE END OF THE WEEK, THURSDAY/FRIDAY, RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS, THUS LEADING TO
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN TO END THE WORKWEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
LACKING MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT, THE SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY TO ONLY HAVE
NUISANCE AFFECTS, MAINLY SPOT SHOWERS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
THE SHORTWAVE IS MORE ROBUST, BUT THE HIGHER PWATS EXIT AHEAD OF THE
BEST FORCING, LIKELY A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. OPT'D TO LEAVE IN LOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD, IF THERE WERE ENOUGH MOISTURE
THESE SHOWERS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES TURN MILD
THIS WEEK, MORE ON THAT IN A SECOND. LATE THIS WEEK THERE IS A SHIFT
IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN, LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. PERIOD
OF WEATHER BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS UNSETTLED WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS IS NEARLY A WEEK AWAY
THERE ARE MANY UNKNOWNS; COASTAL LOW OR INLAND RUNNER, COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW OR WINTRY MIX, AND THE EXACT TIMING. DID LEAN HEAVILY
ON THE NBM WHICH GAVE WIDESPREAD 'CHANCE' POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AS ADVERTISED, SHOULD HAVE A MILD STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THURSDAY AS
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THAT IS RATHER LOW. ENJOY THIS BRIEF
SPRING-LIKE STRETCH, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SEASONABLE DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE UPPER-30S AND COASTAL PLAIN IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE WE COULD OVER PERFORM AND EXCEED THE LOW-50S IF THERE IS
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, THAT WOULD BE AN
ADDED BONUS! AS MENTIONED, THURSDAY IS A BIT OF A TOSS, IF THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO COME THROUGH, COULD HAVE A 4TH MILD DAY ACROSS
THE REGION, BEFORE THE COOLING TREND RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SATURDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WNW 5-10 KNOTS SHIFT TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT VFR. W WIND 5-10 KNOTS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WINDS/SEAS
DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...WILL LET THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 7
AM THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WSW FLOW AND MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...KJC/DOOLEY
MARINE...FRANK/DOOLEY
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