758
FXUS61 KBOX 221748
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
148 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING WINDY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY RAIN, BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF WET LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1115 AM UPDATE:
BIT OF A CHILLY START BUT LATE-MARCH SUN HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. DESPITE A LITTLE BIT
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE, NOT A BAD START TO THE WEEKEND!
HOWEVER WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES IN AFTER SUNDOWN (BETWEEN
ABOUT 7-10 PM WES TO EAST). CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR MOSAIC IN
CENTRAL NY SHOWS SOME RETURNS, BUT THESE AREN'T REACHING THE
GROUND IN LIGHT OF THE ROUGHLY 25 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THERE, WITH THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP BEING WELL ACROSS WESTERN
NY. OTHER THAN SLOWING DOWN POPS TO THE AFTER- SUNSET PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL END UP BEING DRY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER SUBCLOUD AIR THAT WON'T REALLY
RECOVER ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGES...
* MAINLY DRY AND MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
* A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
AFTER DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW TODAY
BECOMING INCREASINGLY GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING TAPS INTO 35-45
KT LLJ AT 850 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY,
AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS COMES AHEAD OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES LATE TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INCREASING CLOUDCOVER AND CAUSING A FEW
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF NOTABLE CHANGES GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. ON THE WHOLE MOST WILL STAY DRY. OVERNIGHT THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CAA HELPING TO KEEP WINDS
MIXING DOWN OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECT THE BREEZY WINDS TO CONTINUE. POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD LOW TEMPS TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER, IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* BREEZY WINDS IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
* DRY AND SUNNY.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY LEADING TO SUNNY
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
SLACKENS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD, DESPITE THE DECREASED
CLOUDCOVER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING
OUT IN THE 40S, JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR (MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS).
* POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
* TROUGH POSITIONS OVER NORTHEAST THURS/FRI WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PUSH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE IS SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST,
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS RELATING TO THE
TRACK/TIMING AND COLD AIR AVAILABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL PLAY INTO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT WET SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THE
SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL AT POTENTIAL FOR A
TRACE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR, MAINLY MA.
ENSEMBLES SHOW GENERALLY A 20-60% CHANCE FOR SEEING OVER AN 1" NORTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES (50%+) ARE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN BORDER OF
CENTRAL MA. THIS PERIOD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE VERTICAL COLUMN WARMS INTO MID-MORNING MONDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
HAVE LOW PROBABILITY TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION, BUT COULD SEE SOME
FLAKES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES MIXED IN FURTHER EAST
TOWARD BOSTON DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE COLD
AIR. ELSEWHERE WILL BE RAIN WITH ALL LOCATIONS CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN BY LATE AM/EARLY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE MEANS RANGE QPF IN THE
0.25-0.50" RANGE. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER TUESDAY BEHIND MONDAY'S SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MID-WEEK THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK WHICH WILL IMPACT QPF AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE MAIN LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
RI AND SE MA AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
AN UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. A RIDGE MOVES IN SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING A WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT POTENTIALLY A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH SOME SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT'S WEST TO EAST
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ~22Z SAT-01Z SUN WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER-VFR CLOUD DECKS AND A LOW (<30%)
CHANCE AT AN UNRESTRICTED SHOWER. CLEARING THEREAFTER WILL THEN
BRING A WINDSHIFT FROM INITIAL SW WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTS 20-25 KT
TO NWLY AROUND 13-17KT WITH GUSTS 23-28 KT.
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS (SPEEDS 14-18 KT/GUSTS 25-30 KT), ALTHOUGH
WINDS AND GUSTS EASE AFTER 20Z.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING E/ESE INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE DRY THRU 12Z MON ALBEIT WITH LOWERING CIGS IN EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND, WARM FRONTAL PRECIP SHIELD BRING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND 2-5 SM VISBYS BEGINS TO MOVE INTO INTERIOR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AS SOON AS 06Z MON BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z MON. PRECIP
LIKELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW/ICE PELLET MIX FOR INTERIOR
AIRPORTS WITH MINOR ACCUM (C-1") OF SNOW/SLEET BY DAYBREAK FOR
BAF/BDL. SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT, AND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO
WNW AROUND 23-00Z WITH 25-KT GUSTS UPON PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT ON SUN.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. RA, SN
LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS TURN SW AND BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS INTO TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR OUTER WATERS.
SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY INCREASE TO 5-7 FT OVERNIGHT ON THE OUTER WATERS,
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. RAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-
232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BW/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...LOCONTO/FT
MARINE...LOCONTO/FT
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