707
FXUS61 KBOX 230710
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
310 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COOLER, BLUSTERY AND VERY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN BRINGS A SNOW TO RAIN MIX TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, TAKING THE LONGEST TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IN THE INTERIOR.
A MINOR, SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR,
WITH ANY SNOW BEING WASHED AWAY BY RAIN EARLY MONDAY IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. DRYING OUT FOR TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THURSDAY TRENDS DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING AFTER NOON.
* DRY WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT COOLER TEMPS, IN THE 40S.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE TODAY PROVIDING A SUNNY AND DRY END TO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE
THE SUNNIER SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN
SATURDAY THANKS TO CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS FROM
+2C TO -5C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. IT
WILL FEEL COLDER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING, THOUGH,
AS THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD NOON HOWEVER AS THE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN MONDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW; NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
* SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN FOR MOST BY MID MORNING, FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FIRST BRINGS AN INCREASE OF CLOUDCOVER WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD BY SUNSET, THICKENING
AND LOWERING IN HEIGHT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SNE AFTER MIDNIGHT WE'LL SEE THE
PRECIP SHIELD EXPAND, BRINGING A BOUT OF SNOW, AND SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT ONSET ON EITHER
SIDE OF FREEZING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
(LIKELIHOOD OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING) MOST OF SNE SHOULD SEE PRECIP
START AS SNOW AT ONSET OR EVEN SOME SLEET DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF A 900 MB WARM NOSE. REGARDLESS, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING
INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO MOST LOCATIONS FLIPPING TO RAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS WILL BE TOUGHEST TO SCOUR OUT
THAT SUBFREEZING AIR AND THUS THE LAST TO CHANGE, SO EXPECTING THE
MOST ACCUMULATION THERE, UP TO AN INCH OR TWO. ELSEWHERE A QUICK
COATING TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BEING WASHED AWAY BY RAIN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
2PM AND 9 PM THOUGH SOME MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK SIDE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, BETWEEN SOUTHERLY FLOW, THICK
CLOUDCOVER, AND PRECIPITATION WE LIKELY WON'T CLIMB OUT OF THE 40S
(EVEN UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
* DRY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY:
THE MAIN BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. DESPITE
COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES, DOWNSLOPING AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL
BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRACK A SYSTEM NEAR THE REGION BRING OUR NEXT
SHOT AT SEEING PRECIPITATION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED
OUT ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK WHICH WILL IMPACT QPF AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG MEMBERS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS RI AND SE MA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS, BUT OVERALL APPEARING LIKE A LIGHTER RAIN
EVENT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 40S TO UPPER 40S. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW COVERAGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR
MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH POINTS OF THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN MOST
SPOTS.
WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLES POINT TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
SHOWER CHANCES, DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR NW WINDS AROUND 13-17KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS (SPEEDS 14-18 KT/GUSTS 25-30 KT), ALTHOUGH
WINDS AND GUSTS EASE AFTER 20Z.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
VFR BUT CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR FOR WESTERN TERMINALS TOWARD
12Z WITH INCOMING RA/SN. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND 2-5 SM VISBYS OVERSPREADING SNE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS RA/SN OVERSPREADS. PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS AS
SNOW/ICE PELLET MIX FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MINOR ACCUM
OF A COATING (MOST LIKELY) TO AN INCH (WORST CASE) OF
SNOW/SLEET FOR BAF/BDL. SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT
BOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
STRONG NW GUSTS 30-35 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25
KTS BY AFTERNOON AND EVEN MORESO OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 4-7 FT TODAY,
THEN 1-3 FEET OVERNIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20-25 KT WITH SEAS RISING TO 4-6 FT. STEADY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS MONDAY, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
AROUND 2 MILES.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ230>237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BW/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...BW/MENSCH
MARINE...BW/MENSCH
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