815
FXUS61 KBOX 241845
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
245 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONTINUED DRYING TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY TRENDS DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BECOMING DRIER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO FINALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SCOUR-OUT DRYING
BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER HUMIDITY TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK INVERSION. NOT
ANTICIPATING VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE
WET GROUND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMER TUESDAY, BUT THEN TURNING COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LOOKING AT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE SAW TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
MOST, WITH LESS CHANGE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NW MA.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME, SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION REACH OUR REGION AT ALL. THAT
SAID, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, GENERALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF I-495 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SREF AND NAM WERE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD, HAVING A CLOSER TRACK THAN MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GREATLY. THE TREND IN
MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRIER OVERALL. WILL SEE IF THAT
TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
* SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL TRACK A SYSTEM NEAR THE REGION BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
SEEING PRECIPITATION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE TRACK WHICH WILL IMPACT QPF AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT
AMONG MEMBERS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROBABILITIES FOR >0.10" OF QPF ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THEY RANGE FROM 50 TO
70 PERCENT ACROSS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS, BUT OVERALL THIS STILL
LOOKS LIKE LIGHTER RAIN EVENT ON MOST GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH A TRANSIENT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THIS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN TROUGH ALOFT MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW COVERAGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGH POINTS OF THE BERKSHIRES
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS.
WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES EVEN SUGGEST A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET, BUT DETAILS ARE FAR
FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
INITIAL MVFR-IFR CEILINGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR MOST,
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS MVFR IN STRATUS AND FOG, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KT
OR LESS.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
BOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TIMING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TRENDS.
BDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG UNTIL THEN. STUCK BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING, WHICH THEN SLACKEN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...BELK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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