015
FXUS61 KBOX 250422
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1222 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONTINUED DRYING TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK AS A SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY TRENDS DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BECOMING DRIER TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA TO FINALLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SCOUR-OUT DRYING
BEHIND THIS FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SHALLOW
LAYER OF HIGHER HUMIDITY TRAPPED BENEATH A WEAK INVERSION. NOT
ANTICIPATING VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH THE
WET GROUND LIKELY LEADING TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMER TUESDAY, BUT THEN TURNING COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LOOKING AT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO REDEVELOP WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN
WE SAW TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER FOR
MOST, WITH LESS CHANGE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND PERHAPS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NW MA.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME, SHOULD THE PRECIPITATION REACH OUR REGION AT ALL. THAT
SAID, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, GENERALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF I-495 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SREF AND NAM WERE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD, HAVING A CLOSER TRACK THAN MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK,
WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GREATLY. THE TREND IN
MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRIER OVERALL. WILL SEE IF THAT
TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MAINLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
* SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
* NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WEDNESDAY.
UNDERNEATH THE TROUGH, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MEMBERS
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR >0.10" OF QPF ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE THEY RANGE FROM 50 TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY
IN NATURE SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM RAIN. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS NEAR-ZERO CHANCES FOR QPF >0.5".
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD WITH A TRANSIENT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. DESPITE THIS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 40S WITH A COOL WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW COVERAGE/SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MAY SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
THE HIGH POINTS OF THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST SPOTS.
WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLES SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS DEPICTED TO ADVANCE WELL AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM AND COULD BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING LATER
SATURDAY. WINTRY WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
A COLD AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE BEFORE THE WEEKEND AS WILL THE RESULTING
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE.
A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAYBREAK.
WHILE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS WERE SCOURING OUT...WET GROUND FROM
THE EARLIER RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP. SO CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM VFR TO LIFR
OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AFTER 12Z INTO THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY
MID-LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH WSW WINDS OF 8-15 KNOTS
AND A FEW GUSTS OF 20+ KNOTS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.
BOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LEANING TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS SCOURING OUT BEFORE THE
MORNING PUSH.
BDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY EARLY TO
MID MORNING...BUT THE EXACT TIMING STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG UNTIL THEN. STUCK BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING, WHICH THEN SLACKEN TUESDAY
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...FRANK/FT
MARINE...BELK/FT
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