960
FXUS61 KBOX 251351
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
951 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW
BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER LATE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
950 AM UPDATE...
KEY MESSAGES:
* BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SPOT SHOWER FOR
NORTHERN MA
FOG HAS LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT STILL LINGERING
OVER THE ISLANDS. EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT HERE DURING THE NEXT
HOUR. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MA THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE REGION. LOW RISK FOR A SPOT
SHOWER HERE, OTHERWISE A DRY DAY. DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY W-WSW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TO LOW-MID 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WEAK SYSTEM PASSES OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD.
* COOLER WITH SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE TREND THE POPS LOWER AS A
RESULT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE, AROUND 20-30%, OF ANY RAIN
TONIGHT MAINLY BEING THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD. CLEARING SKY
ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WITH LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S WHILE EASTERN
AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT IN
THE MID 30S. A MID-LEVEL LOW AND SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, PWATS AROUND 0.2" AND
0.3", NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. THINKING WE'D HAVE WIDELY
SCATTERED, NUISANCE TYPE, RAIN SHOWERS. A FEW DEGREES COLDER,
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S BY THE COAST.
LATE IN THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE THOSE SHOWERS IN THE
INTERIOR CHANGE TO A SNOW SHOWER DUE TO CAA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A FEW BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT & AGAIN THU
NIGHT
* MAINLY DRY & SEASONABLE THU AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY 45 TO
50
* MILDER FRI WITH HIGHS LOWER-MIDDLE 50S & SHOWERS POSSIBLE
LATE
* UNSETTLED/WET/COOL AT TIMES SAT/SUN BUT NOT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT
* POTENTIALLY MILDER BY NEXT MON WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
DETAILS...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT.
WHILE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A FEW BRIEF PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TEMPS WED
NIGHT PROBABLY IN THE 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. MAINLY DRY ON THU
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW MORE BRIEF
PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR AND SOMEWHAT MILDER
TEMPS. HIGHS PROBABLY TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
FRI/FRI NIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
LOW RISK FOR A TOUCH OF SNOW/ICE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN FRI
NIGHT...BUT THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY JUST SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND...
WHILE THE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION AS A WAVE OR
TWO OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG IT. IN FACT...WE COULD BE PRETTY
CHILLY ESPECIALLY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY JAMMED TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT DO EXPECT A PERIOD OR TWO OF
UNSETTLED WET/COOL WEATHER BUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. IN FACT...LOW RISK FOR A TOUCH OF SNOW/ICE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT THINKING LIQUID FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. HIGHS PROBABLY ONLY IN THE 40S THIS
WEEKEND AND SOME PLACES MAY EVEN REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN.
MONDAY...
WE MAY FINALLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MON...ALTHOUGH THIS
TIME OF YEAR THAT IS NOT A GUARANTEE AT THIS TIME RANGE. BUT IF
THAT IS THE CASE...HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 50S OF 60S. WE ALSO WOULD
NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MON AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
REMAINING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 13Z/15Z,
OTHERWISE VFR WITH WSW WINDS OF 8-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 20+
KNOTS THROUGH 22Z/00Z.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING NW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY.
BOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS TODAY AROUND
4,000 FT. GUSTS PICKUP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS FROM THE WSW 20 TO
25 KNOTS.
BDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
SHOULD SCOUR OUT BETWEEN 13Z/15Z, GUSTS FROM THE WSW 20 TO 25
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
SHSN, CHANCE FZRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE FZRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SOUTH COASTAL WATERS TODAY
TODAY: EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT OVER
NEARSHORE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AND UP TO 6 FT OUTER SOUTHERN
WATERS.
TONIGHT: WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
OVERNIGHT, CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. WINDS ARE SW
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. FALLING SEAS, NEAR SHORE ARE 2-4 FT AND OFF
SHORE ARE 4-6 FT.
WEDNESDAY: SPOT SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WSW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ231>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY
MARINE...KJC/FRANK/DOOLEY
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