109
FXUS61 KBOX 121128
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
728 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE NEAR DELAWARE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CONTINUED COASTAL RAIN AND INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN
WET SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TO POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BEFORE MORE RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
INTO TUESDAY. COOLER YET DRY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MAKE A
RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY
ARRIVE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
330 AM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIND-SWEPT RAINS
EXPECTED FOR EASTERN MA, RI AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
* MAIN IMPACTS TO ROADS CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 1000 FT,
WITH ANY ACCUMULATION IN LOWER ELEVATIONS IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON GRASSY NON-PAVED SURFACES.
* PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE AND MIST LATE THIS MORNING TO
NOONTIME.
* COOL, RAW WITH NORTHEAST BREEZES AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH 40 DEGREES.
DETAILS:
OVERCAST, RAW CONDITIONS WITH STEADY PRECIPITATION HAVING NOW
OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
PRECIP IS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHEAST BREEZES WITH LOCAL GUSTS
NEAR THE COAST UP TO 35 MPH. RAIN IS THE COMMON PRECIP TYPE ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 WHERE CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR
40. FURTHER INLAND DEEPER INTO THE NEAR SURFACE COOLER AIRMASS,
TEMPS ARE MORE BORDERLINE (IN THE LOW TO MID 30S) IN INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A MIX OF RAIN, WET SNOW AND EVEN SOME
SLEET HAVE OCCURRED. HAVEN'T SEEN TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION ON PAVED SURFACES PER WEBCAMS. ALL THIS IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE
THE DELAWARE COAST. RADAR AND NEAR-TERM MESOANALYSIS DATASETS SHOW A
STEADY SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN END OF A RIBBON
OF 925-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM COASTAL DELAWARE TO OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. THIS BAND OF STEADIER, MORE ENHANCED PRECIP IS
POISED TO ADVANCE FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, AS MINOR ACCUMS OF WET SNOW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON
NON-PAVED SURFACES ABOVE 1000 FT. MOST NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW COOLING
TEMPS AS INCREASING NE FLOW ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO DRAIN SOUTHWARD
FROM INTERIOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THE ADVANCING PRECIP SHIELD
NOW OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MOVING INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE
MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN MA AND RI ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND AS THIS
SLUG OF MORE ENHANCED PRECIP MOVES NORTH, RAIN SHOULD INCREASE TO A
LIGHT TO MODERATE CLIP. STEADIER PRECIP THEN BEGINS TO LIFT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH INTO NH/VT DURING THE MID MORNING TO NOONTIME PERIOD.
FOR THE AFTERNOON, STEADY PRECIP WILL HAVE COME TO AN END, BUT WE'LL
BE LEFT WITH A RATHER DREARY MIX OF DRIZZLE AND MIST ALONG WITH
CONTINUED NE BREEZES.
TEMPS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE VERY MUCH FROM CURRENT LEVELS,
IF THEY DO AT ALL, GIVEN THE NE BREEZES AND STEADIER PRECIP. HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NE WINDS. THUS,
A RATHER RAW DAY AHEAD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
330 AM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* CONTINUED OVERCAST WITH DRIZZLE AND MIST AND ONSHORE BREEZES
TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM OVERNIGHT.
* OVERCAST FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER
LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY. WE COULD BREAK
FREE OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH PEEKS OF SUN IN THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS IN THE 40S EAST, TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50S
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DETAILS:
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
OVERCAST, DRIZZLY AND MISTY CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, AS THE SYSTEM'S UPPER LEVEL LOW CRAWLS FROM
NORTHEAST NJ INTO CT/RI BY DAYBREAK. NE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
AT AROUND 10-15 MPH, BUT WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN NE
SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE DAYTIME. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FALL VERY FAR EITHER WITH READINGS IN THE 30S BEING
COMMON.
A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY PERIOD, AS IT
PERTAINS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN
MOVING LANDWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN MID- ATLANTIC WATERS THAT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH AND/OR
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM'S MID/UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN CT/RI. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LARGE
VARIATION IN HOW FAR WEST WOULD ANY STEADIER LIGHT RAINS
ADVANCE, ALTHOUGH RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MORE OF A
WESTWARD TREND, WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN INTO CENTRAL MA AND EASTERN CT. THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN
THE QPF PLACEMENT TO RAISE POP INTO EASTERN MA TOWARD THE HIGH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
ALSO POINT OUT THAT THIS SECOND ROUND OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY IS NOT
A SUBSTANTIAL QPF EVENT, WITH TOTALS IN EASTERN MA UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER-INCH BEFORE TAPERING OFF/RETURNING SEAWARD
LATE IN THE DAY. THE FURTHER WEST ONE GOES, ESPECIALLY WESTERN
MA AND MOST OF CT, THESE AREAS SEEM LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN AT ALL, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE GENERALLY
OVERCAST. THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THESE WESTERN AREAS COULD BREAK
FREE OF THE OVERCAST AND EVEN EKE OUT SOME PEEKS OF SUN LATE IN
THE DAY. IF WE CAN BREAK OUT FROM CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEARING 50 DEGREES. COLDEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS THE FURTHER EAST ONE GOES, IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S, GIVEN OVERCAST AND CONTINUED ONSHORE BREEZES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN EXITS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK WITH BLUSTERY AND DRY CONDITIONS
* MORE WET WEATHER POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
DETAILS...
RAIN OVER EASTERN MA ENDS AS THE CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH MOVES
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
RETURN, THEN SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH UP TO +10C; HIGHS FOR THE START OF THE WEEK IN THE 60S CAN
BE EXPECTED.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN GOING INTO MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF QPF, ENSEMBLES
INDICATE 24 HOUR ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 0.10" TO 0.25", THE GEFS
RUNNING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNNING SLIGHTLY
LOWER. DESPITE THIS FRONT'S PASSAGE, THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RETURN
TO THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW/MID 50S.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO START THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DECREASE; 925 MB TEMPERATURES GO BACK TO AROUND -5C TO 0C. DRY
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, HOWEVER THE
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW PROBS OF 6 HOUR QPF AT
OR ABOVE 0.10" BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE VARIES
BETWEEN REMAINING DRY THROUGH FRIDAY TO INDICATING AT LEAST SOME
RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW PWAT VALUES
ONLY FROM 0.20-0.40" GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
12Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT MODERATE ON EXACT TIMING.
MVFR-IFR IN STEADY RAIN (AT TIMES MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO I-95), WITH PERIODS OF WET SNOW AND VISBYS 1-4SM
AND MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATION AT ORH/BAF. STEADIEST PRECIP
SHIELD (LIQUID AND WINTRY) MOVES NORTHWARD FROM APPROX 13Z
SOUTH COAST TO 17Z NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH VT/NH, GIVE OR
TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THAT OCCURS, PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
TO AN INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH AREAS OF 4-6 SM MIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT,
HIGHEST NEAR THE COASTS.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH BECOMES MODERATE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR-IFR CONTINUES WITH STRATUS, FOG/MIST AND DRIZZLE OR
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAINS. ANOTHER SHIELD OF STEADIER LIGHT RAIN
MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE OCEAN TOWARDS THE EASTERN MA COAST AND
COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MA/RI BETWEEN 09-12Z
SUNDAY. NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT EARLY SHIFT TO
N AROUND 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR THE EASTERN
MA COAST.
SUNDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND MIST GENERALLY CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME VFR BREAKS LATE IN THE
DAY AT BAF/BDL. BEST CHANCE AT STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS EASTERN MA
AND INTO RI, ALTHOUGH ITS WESTERN EXTENT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. ANY RAIN NEAR THE EASTERN COASTS SHOULD PULL AWAY
LATE. N WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT BECOME NW AND THEN DECREASE TO 5-10
KT BY AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE WARNINGS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ON THE NORTHERN WATERS CONTINUE.
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS, NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 30-35
KT RANGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY. BUOY 44097 IS
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9.2 FT AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING AT 8
SEC PERIOD, AND MARINERS CAN EXPECT ROUGH SEA STATE CONDITIONS
WITH A PRONOUNCED EAST FETCH. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN REDUCING
VISBY TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z TODAY TO
ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS TO SUBSIDE, AND THESE WILL NEED TO
BE DOWNSHIFTED TO SCAS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED INTO THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
ON THE NORTHERN WATERS, NE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT TODAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-9 FT, ALONG WITH ROUNDS OF STEADY RAIN THIS
MORNING THAT TAPER OFF TO MIST/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY EASE SOME TONIGHT TO AROUND 20-25 KT, ALTHOUGH MAY PICK UP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 25-30 KT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ002>004-008-009-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
MARINE...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
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