165
FXUS61 KBOX 131740
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
140 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO TONIGHT FOR EASTERN AREAS. MUCH MILDER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED. DRIER, COOLER, AND WINDIER FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE THURSDAY. DRY AND WARMER
FOR FRIDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNS
GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
845 AM UPDATE...
RAW DAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF
CAPE COD. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WRAPPING AROUND TO THE WEST OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW COMBINED WITH MODEST FORCING WILL RESULT IN
BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST INTO EASTERN MA TODAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL 0.20-0.50" IS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MA AND RI BUT BULK OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN MA. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS YOU HEAD WEST
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CT AND WESTERN MA AND EXPECT
SOME BREAKS OF SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY AS COLUMN
MOISTURE DIMINISHES. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF THE LOW PRES
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY N WINDS ACROSS SE COASTAL MA AND
CAPE/ISLANDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
CHILL AS TEMPS DON'T GET OUT OF THE LOWER 40S HERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
* OVERCAST CONTINUES MOST OF THE DAY IN EASTERN MA AND RI, WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND NORTHERLY BREEZES. TEMPS ONLY
WARMING SLIGHTLY IN THE 40S.
* OVERCAST IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, BUT WITH PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID
50S.
DETAILS:
DREARY, RAW OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH NE BREEZES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
STRONGEST GUSTS REMAIN OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT
NANTUCKET. TEMPS JUST HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH EITHER WITH THE
CLOUDS AND BREEZES, WITH MANY AREAS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S. IN FACT THE TEMPERATURE AT LOGAN AIRPORT HAS STAYED AT 37
DEGREES SINCE YESTERDAY'S 13Z OB. REGIONAL RADAR AND COOLER
CLOUD TOP TEMPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INFER ANOTHER
ROUND OF STEADIER LIGHT RAINS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN WATERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PINWHEEL/SLINGSHOT NORTHWARD TO
BRUSH AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS
PRECIP SHIELD MAKES IT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STEADY LIGHT RAIN (POPS 60-90%) IS FROM ABOUT A WORCESTER TO
WILLIMANTIC LINE EASTWARD TO THE CAPE. MOST OF THE DAY IN
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE DRY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
WILL ANY AREAS SHAKE FREE OF CLOUD COVER TODAY? THE GOOD NEWS
IF YOU LIVE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO NORTHERN CT, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE THE ANSWER IS YES, BUT NOT UNTIL THE EARLY TO
MIDAFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND ALLOWS SOME MIXING
TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THESE AREAS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AT SEEING HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 50S. FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
MA AND RI, IT'S LOOKING LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE
DAYTIME PERIOD, CONTINUED ROBUST ONSHORE BREEZES DURING THE
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NW AND ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST WARMING.
TEMPS HERE IN THE 40S, WITH LOW 40S FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
330 AM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT, COOLER LOWS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
* SUNNY AND TURNING MILDER MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, EVEN A
FEW MID 60S? POSSIBLE SEABREEZE FOR BOTH COASTS.
DETAILS:
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY:
TONIGHT OPENS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FROM WORCESTER WESTWARD, AND STILL SOME STRAGGLING
OVERCAST OVER EASTERN MA AND MOST OF RI. BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE
TRENDING TO CLEAR SKIES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL ALSO BE SLACKENING TONIGHT TO UNDER 5 MPH, EXCEPT AROUND
5-10 MPH FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
PULL AWAY. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN
INTERIOR SNE, THESE AREAS SHOULD REALLY RADIATE PRETTY WELL
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. FURTHER EAST, WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE OPENING COOLER THAN THE INTERIOR, TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWER TO FALL WITH THE SLOWER EXIT OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED IF
EASING NW WINDS, DOWN TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WITH HOW
DAMP WE'VE BEEN AND ONLY MODEST LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS, IT
WOULDN'T ENTIRELY SHOCK ME IF SOME AREAS SEE SOME RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP.
AFTER AN OVERCAST AND CHILLY WEEKEND, WE FINALLY ARE ABLE TO
GET SOME SUNSHINE IN ALL AREAS AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY. THIS
OCCURS AS SFC HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB RIDGE
AXIS BUILD OVER AND JUST EAST OF SNE. WINDS TO FLIP TO SW AROUND
5-10 MPH LATE IN THE DAY. WITH GOOD MIXING AND SEVERAL HOURS OF
SUNSHINE, MANY AREAS STAND TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOW/MID
60S. SOMETHING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEABREEZE TO
KEEP THE COASTS QUITE A BIT COOLER AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SWLYS PICK UP.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY POSSIBLE
* DRY, BLUSTERY, AND COOLER WEDNESDAY; SLIGHTLY WARMER THURSDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
DETAILS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN
A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER
IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE REGION REMAINS DRY DURING THE DAY. A
WASHOUT IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE SHOWERS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST FOLLOWING THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE, PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP BACK DOWN AROUND 0C (925 MB) BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ONLY SITTING IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY THE AFTERNOON. 850
MB TEMPS GET DOWN AROUND -5C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S, BUT WITH THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MAY
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT. CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, SOME
CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND COLDER UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALL INDICATE A COLDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. SOME
SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SIT JUST ABOVE OR BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION MAKES ITS EXIT FRIDAY WITH
SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL
HELP BRING BACK HIGHS IN THE 60S AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SW AND PICK UP SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A
WARM FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY ALSO BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE MAY ARRIVE
SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY INCREASE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z:
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN MA.
ELSEWHERE, MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. N-NW
GUSTS 25-30 KT SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTS TO 20 KT
ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE ON TIMING.
RAIN EXITS CAPE/ISLANDS THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS HERE
IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 03Z AND TO VFR AFTER 09Z. ELSEWHERE,
TRENDING TO VFR THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING FROM W TO E. NW
GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS, 5-15 KT ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. NW WIND 8-15 KT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
SW IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA-BREEZES DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TRENDING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, MODERATE ON TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCAS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS, WHICH WILL BE GRADUALLY PEELED AWAY
AS NE TO N WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT (OCNL NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS
EASTERN WATERS) COME TO AN END EARLY TONIGHT. BUOYS OVER
EASTERN MA WATERS INDICATE WAVE HEIGHTS THAT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH
AS 10 FT. EXPECT CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS THRU TONIGHT, AS IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR THESE WAVES TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. SEAS OVER
OUTER WATERS IN SCA RANGE MAY CONTINUE INTO PART OF MONDAY. SW
WINDS ON MONDAY AROUND 10-15 KT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT DRYING OUT BY
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
233>237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
NEAR TERM...KJC/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...KJC/HRENCECIN
MARINE...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
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