070
FXUS61 KBOX 150825
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
425 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY
AND WINDY WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* POTENTIAL FOR HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL (GRAUPEL).
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES WERE AROUND 6C/KM. HAVE SEEN A FEW BRIEF ROUNDS OF
LIGHTNING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL
CONDITIONS CHANGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED A RATHER
SHALLOW LAYER, ABOUT 4-6 KFT, BETWEEN THE LEVEL OF FREE
CONVECTION AND THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH DEPTH
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH DEPTH TO GENERATE SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHALLOW THUNDERSTORMS EITHER, BUT THOSE SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
ALL SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WEST WINDS
ACROSS OUR REGION. BECOMING DRIER, BUT STILL EXPECTING PERIODS
OF CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL. IF WE GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BY EVEN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES, THEN MAKES IT MORE LIKELY TO TAP INTO A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET. KEPT WIND GUSTS UNDER 40 MPH FOR NOW, BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPDATED 215 PM MON
KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CLEARING
SUNDAY
DETAILS...
THURSDAY:
HIGHER PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WNW WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
50S PERHAPS SOME SPOTS HITTING 60 WITH THE HELP OF THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT FLOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND:
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF
TO THE WEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTS IN LATER IN THE DAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S WITH BREEZY SW WINDS. OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
THIS WILL POSITION SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY BRINGING A FAIRLY MILD DAY DESPITE THE
UNSETTLED/SHOWERY WEATHER. ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S SATURDAY. THERE ARE A PORTION OF MEMBERS THAT SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR 70S, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SO THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY WARM DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN
TO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LLJ WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO
THE NW. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A SUFFICIENTLY COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP LESS THAN 0C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOLER DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
MONDAY TRENDS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A
FEW SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW, SIGNALING AT MORE OF A UNSETTLED
PATTERN IN PLACE BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE
MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH AREAS MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
TIMES. STILL LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AND CT. BECOMING DRIER TONIGHT, WITH VFR FOR
MOST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
INCREASING SW WINDS TODAY GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES. WINDS
SHIFT TO W/NW TONIGHT WITH COASTAL AIRPORTS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT
TOWARD DAYBREAK WED.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE, MAINLY DUE TO TIMING SHRA.
EXPECTING TS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF AIRPORT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE 20Z-23Z
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
KEY POINTS:
* PERIOD OF STRONG W/NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO WED MOST
LIKELY BRINGS GUSTS OF 25-30 KT, BUT POSSIBLY HIGHER. HAVE THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS REMAINING LESS THAT 34 KT MOST
OF THIS TIME, WITH THE LOW RISK OF A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...BELK/MENSCH
MARINE...BELK/MENSCH
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