470
FXUS61 KBOX 151944
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
344 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE FRONT,
DRIER BUT WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. BREEZY AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DRIER AND MILD BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
UPDATED 340 PM...
KEY MESSAGES:
* HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, BUT NOT A WASHOUT
* FROPA ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
TONIGHT: STRONG SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN PA/NY AT 3 PM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
MA/CT/RI. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH,
THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION. FROPA PLOWS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SW TO WNW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
STRONG CAA WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING FROM +8C THIS AFTERNOON, TO -6C
BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING FROM THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON, INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S
BY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPDATED 340 PM...
KEY MESSAGES:
* MUCH COOLER WED, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S
* STRONG WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-40 MPH, MAKING IT FEEL
MORE LIKE IN THE 40S
WED: 985 MB MARITIME LOW WILL CONTINUE CAA INTO SNE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S (UPPER 40S HIGH TERRAIN) BUT
FEELING MORE LIKE THE 40S GIVEN THE GUSTY WEST WINDS. DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS, BUT LOTS OF STRATO-CU CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. MORE SUNSHINE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
WED NIGHT: HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH SLOWS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST,
YIELDING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, WNW GRADIENT REMAINS PERSISTENT,
YIELDING CHILLY WNW WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
340 PM UPDATE...
KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE 70F ON SATURDAY
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLE CLEARING
SUNDAY
* MARATHON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE
DETAILS...
THURSDAY...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILD TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE 50S, WITH PERHAPS SOME SPOTS HITTING 60 WITH THE HELP OF THE
WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO
THE WEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE GRADUALLY ADVECTS IN LATER IN THE DAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S WITH BREEZY SW WINDS.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL POSITION SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN
THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY BRINGING FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES DESPITE
THE UNSETTLED/SHOWERY WEATHER. ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHS AT LEAST IN THE
60S SATURDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT SOME AREAS COULD REACH 70F. THIS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT/LLJ WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINING A SUFFICIENTLY
COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NW.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO
BELOW 0C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
MONDAY TRENDS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND WINDS
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW, SIGNALING MORE OF A UNSETTLED PATTERN IN
PLACE BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
UPDATED 19Z...
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
IN VFR CLOUD BASES THROUGH 00Z-02Z, THEN DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS ALONG
WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW. BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY WITH THE
WIND SHIFT. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WED AND WED NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CLOUD BASES WED, THEN SKC
WED NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 35 KT WED, SLOWLY DIMINISHING WED
NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED -SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
21Z-01Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST
21Z-24Z WITH GUSTS UP 40 KT POSSIBLE. VFR CLOUD BASES THRU WED, THEN
SKC WED NIGHT.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED -SHRA WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
20Z-24Z. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE. WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST
20Z-24Z WITH GUSTS UP 40 KT POSSIBLE. VFR CLOUD BASES THRU WED, THEN
SKC WED NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
340 PM UPDATE...
KEY POINTS:
* PERIOD OF STRONG W/NW WINDS TONIGHT INTO WED.
* MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF BID-MVY-ACK
TONIGHT: SW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING WEST 15-25 KT
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT AT TIMES, HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH
OF BID-MVY-ACK. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FROPA.
WED: WEST WINDS 20-30 KT, UP TO 35 KT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.
WED NIGHT: WEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY
CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...MCMINN/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...MCMINN
AVIATION...MCMINN/NOCERA
MARINE...MCMINN/NOCERA
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