164
FXUS61 KBOX 060751
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
351 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING DRIER, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. APPEARS WE MAY BRIEFLY DRY OUT BY THURSDAY BEFORE
MORE RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
TODAY
ANOTHER DREARY AND RAINY DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SENDS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTO SNE. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN QPF AMOUNTS FROM GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT, STILL EXPECTING A WIDE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
TODAY. WITH ESE WINDS, THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS, WORCESTER
HILLS, AND NW RI COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.5
INCHES DUE TO UPSLOPING EFFECTS. THE MAIN FLOODING IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO BE RIVER FLOODING, WITH SEVERAL GAUGES NEARING THE
ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGES. WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO
CONTINUE AS PLANNED AS THERE MAY STILL BE MINOR/NUISANCE STREET
FLOODING TODAY AS RAIN RATES COULD EXCEED 0.25 INCHES PER HOUR.
WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT
THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN TONIGHT, ALLOWING RAIN TO SCATTER OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, EXPECT LOW STATUS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE TO FILL IN,
ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES STAY MILD ONCE
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.
WEDNESDAY
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND COLD
POOL, EXITING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. THE RAPID DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE TROUGH ALSO BRINGS THE 500MB COLD POOL FURTHER NORTH.
THESE FACTORS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THE CONVECTIVE
THUNDERSTORM RISK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE NOW BEING ACROSS EASTERN
MA WHERE HREF MEANS SBCAPE STILL REACHES 500 J/KG. DECREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE LOW TO MID-70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS
* BRIEF DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR A CHANGE THURS
* LOOKING UNSETTLED WITH RAIN LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS STILL
ARE UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY:
THURS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY RELATIVELY DRY DAY IN THE WORKWEEK,
WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS COULD REACH MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S, HOWEVER CLOUDS THEN START TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR
THURS NIGHT.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND:
PREDICTABILITY IN THE DETAILS THEN DWINDLES WITH PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUING. WHAT'S REASONABLY
AGREED UPON IS ANOTHER TROUGH OR UPPER LEVEL LOW AGAIN LEADING
TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHERE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, EITHER THROUGH THE INTERIOR OR OFFSHORE. IT STANDS TO
BE AGAIN QUITE UNSETTLED, BUT UNTIL THERE'S A BIT MORE
CONSISTENCY, IT'S DIFFICULT TO REALLY PINPOINT MORE SPECIFICS
SHORT OF IT BEING A LIKELY WET WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
REST OF TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT,
HOWEVER, 2KFT WINDS REMAIN AROUND 30-40 KNOTS FROM THE SW, THUS
WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TONIGHT.
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IFR/LIFR TO START, BUT THERE COULD BE POCKETS OF MVFR
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WHEN WINDS TURN MORE SSW. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY, TAPERING OFF IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS PICK UP SLIGHTLY FROM
THE S TO 10-20 KNOTS WHILE 2KFT WIND DIMINISH TO 20-30 KNOTS
FROM THE S.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IFR/MVFR, EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE LIFR IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE OFF SHORE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/MIST. WINDS TURN LIGHT SSW.
KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LIFR THROUGH 12Z. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR AFTER 12Z.
THERE COULD BE IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON IF THE WIND
TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY VS SE. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY, TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING
KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IFR/LIFR POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHRA LIKELY, ISOLATED
TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS FLIP ESE TODAY AT 20-25 KNOTS. SEAS RISE TO 3-5 FEET. LOW
CLOUDS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH PERIODS OF OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER. WINDS TURN MORE SSW WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN UNDER 20
KNOTS. LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ENTERING THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS NEAR THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP
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