167
FXUS61 KBOX 071819
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER TODAY AND TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPS FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEARING OUT AND TRENDING DRIER ON SUNDAY
WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY:
KEY POINT
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
TODAY, IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM TONIGHT BURN OFF. THE
CORE OF THE 500MB COLD POOL PASSES TO OUR NORTH TODAY, BUT WITH
SBCAPE BUILDING TO 500-700J/KG AROUND 6C/KM, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
MA PIKE. GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY INCREASED THE AMOUNT
OF 0-6KM SHEAR AVAILABLE TOMORROW UP TO 25-30 KNOTS, BUT IT MAY
NOT ARRIVE BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT, IT WONT TAKE MUCH FOR GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL TO REACH
THE GROUND, BUT IF THE SHEAR AND STORMS LINE UP, ITS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT SOME LARGER HAILSTONES BECOME POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT, TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE QUITE
MILD IN THE LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS
* PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
* MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY
TONIGHT:
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL WITH LIGHT RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOME LIGHT SUBSIDENCE, THIS
SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE TURN
LIGHT WESTERLY OR CALM OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
50S, PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS BUT COULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST, WHERE WINDS WILL TAKE LONGER TO TURN WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
STAY MILD AND BOUND BY THE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
THURSDAY:
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
CAUSING LIGHT HEIGHT FALLS OVER SNE. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SBCAPE BUILDING TO NEAR 500 J/KG COULD LEAD TO
LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LIGHT WIND WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, KEEPING COASTAL AREAS COOLER IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* GROWING CONFIDENCE IN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDSWEPT RAIN AND HIGH
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH OR EAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEED TO WATCH RIVERS FOR POSSIBLE
RISES AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
* DRYING OUT SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
STEADY WARMING TREND.
DETAILS:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE ARE UNFORTUNATELY HEADING INTO ANOTHER
SOGGY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL, AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL INDUCE A SUB-1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE TO TREK SOMEWHERE OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND
POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL, WIND-SWEPT RAIN
EVENT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE POSSIBLE RIVER FLOOD/HYDRO
CONCERNS FOR INTERIOR BASINS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
HAVE RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAIN AND/OR ARE STILL EXPERIENCING
RISES. TEMPS TO TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL (HIGH TEMPS SOME 15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL).
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY IS TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY AS THE LATE-
WEEK/SAT SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT
STILL ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE, WE SHOULD SEE A SUSTAINED PERIOD
OF DRIER WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO TEMPS AS WE MOVE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR FOR MOST, THOUGH HYA/ACK SHOULD STILL DEAL WITH LIFR
CEILINGS. LOW CHANCE AT A SHOWER AT ORH AND BED THRU 23Z BUT
BETTER CHANCES AT SHRA IN NH. SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, THOUGH MODERATE ON INTERIOR
FOG.
VFR FOR THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL PLAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE'S A
CHANCE AT SOME PATCHY FOG (INDICATED BY TEMPO 2-5 SM VIS BR). IT
IS NOT CERTAIN IF FOG CAN DEVELOP AS DRIER NW WINDS DEVELOP.
BETTER CHANCE AT SUB-VFR OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH LIFR
STRATUS AND MIST/FOG.
THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY THURS MORNING TO VFR. CEILINGS START TO LOWER
AGAIN INTO BORDERLINE VFR RANGE LATE IN THE DAY IN
INTERIOR/WESTERN AIRPORTS. NW WINDS 5 KT THEN SHIFT TO NE/E BY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THURS NIGHT WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND
STEADY RAIN MAINLY W OF ORH. NE/E WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR, OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A SHOWER
19-23Z BUT BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE NH/MA BORDER. SE WINDS
AROUND 8 KT CURRENTLY TO SHIFT TO SW AROUND 10-12 KT BY 17-18Z.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. THINKING MOSTLY DRY TODAY,
ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA LIKELY,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SHRA LIKELY.
SATURDAY: BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY:
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS:
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OUT OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS STILL AROUND 3-5 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, TUNING MORE WESTERLY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 NM
OR LESS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP
TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
MARINE...LOCONTO
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