447
FXUS61 KBOX 240457
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1257 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
PEAKS ON TUESDAY. THE HEAT BEGINS TO EASE ON WEDNESDAY THEN
TURNING COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TUESDAY
* LITTLE RELIEF TONIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S
SEA BREEZE FINALLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING, AND THE TEMPERATURE
AT BOSTON/LOGAN AIRPORT SPIKED UP TO 90 DEGREES AT 615 PM EDT.
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REFLECT
OBSERVED TRENDS. SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE MOVING TO THE
WEST, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP
RETAIN SOME OF THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE 60S
FOR MOST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTH COASTAL RI HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEE OW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY
EVENING. WHILE BOSTON HAD STRUGGLED TO CLIMB ABOVE 85F SO FAR
TODAY, THERE IS A SEA BREEZE BLOWING COOLER AIR IN AND KEEPING
TEMPS MORE MODERATED. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE KICKS OUT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES BACK IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT
TO SEE TEMPS SKYROCKET TO AN EVENING TIME HIGH NEAR 90F.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S, EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TUESDAY
* CAPE COD HAS BEEN ADDED TO TUESDAY'S HEAT ADVISORY
EXPECTING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN THE MOST
MISERABLE PART OF THE WEEK. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY,
HOVERING AROUND 70F ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. 925MB TEMPS 28C-30C ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH WILL PREVENT ANY SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP THE LAND MASS QUITE HOT. EXPECTING
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPS TO PEAK NEAR OR ABOVE 100F FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS 107-110F.
THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S TUESDAY, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS ROBUST SUPPORT FOR THE CAPE PUSHING INTO THE LOW
90S. OVER 50% OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CAPE TO BE ABOVE 95F, WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING UP TO 102F ACROSS THE MORE INLAND PARTS OF THE
CAPE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH CONSENSUS OF TRIPLE DIGIT
APPARENT TEMPS, WE FELT CONFIDENT PUSHING APPARENT TEMPS UP TO
100-101F ACROSS THE INNER CAPE. WE'VE ALSO ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR BARNSTABLE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO SEE LESS RELIEF THAN MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPS HARDLY FALLING BELOW THE MID 70S.
REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES THIS WEEK. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN LOCATIONS WITH AIR
CONDITIONING AND WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* VERY WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH COOLER NEAR THE COAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. PROBABLE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES FOR SOME
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
* COOLING TREND TOWARD NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
* DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
WHILE LOOKING A LITTLE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO A
DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW, WILL STILL PROBABLY NEED SOME HEAT
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
REAL COOL-DOWN, WHEN WE ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE, IS
SLATED FOR THURSDAY. IT'S ALL SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER. WE SHOULD
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, THEN ANOTHER WARM UP BEGINS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS
HOT AS WE ARE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND APPEARS LIKE WE WILL
BE STUCK BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THUS, NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR EITHER
ALL-DRY OR ALL- WET WEATHER. AM THINKING WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE A
RISK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY
THE STRONG RIDGE BENEATH THE HEAT DOME SHOULD MAINTAIN RAIN-
FREE WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY. NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TOTAL WASHOUT, AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF TIME WITH DRY
WEATHER EACH DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE (CEILINGS AT
ACK)
MAINLY VFR. PATCHY BR/FG POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST,
WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR THE CAPE AIRPORTS. ACK COULD SEE A PERIOD
OF LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS A SCT-BKN DECK TRIES TO PUSH IN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW TO MODERATE. LIGHT WEST WINDS,
INCREASING IN SPEED TOWARD MORNING TO AROUND 5-10 KT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ANY BR/FG FROM OVERNIGHT DISPERSES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH
VFR THEREAFTER. W WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR. HAZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE GIVEN HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS,
EASTERLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT TO AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20
KT BY TUE NIGHT. NIGHTLY RISK FOR FOG ON MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ002>004.
MA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MAZ003>007-010>021-026.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002-008-009.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ022.
RI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ001>007.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...BELK/MCMINN
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DOOLEY/MCMINN/MENSCH
MARINE...MCMINN
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