943
FXUS61 KBOX 260713
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
313 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
TURNING COOLER AS A RESULT OF A COLD FRONT, TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MAJOR SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
70S. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN, UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BRINGS LOWER TEMPERATURES & DEW POINTS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, ARE HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE EARLY MORNING. HEADING OUT THE DOOR
THIS MORNING IT IS NOTICEABLY LESS WARM, BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER, LESS HUMID TOO. SO, SAY GOODBYE TO THE HEAT! COLD FRONT
USHERED IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT
QUICKLY FALL. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AIDS IN THE COOLING
CONDITIONS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA,
WHICH IS SHIFTING EAST. WITH AN ON SHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF 70F. THOUGH, FOR THOSE LIVING
IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY, THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IS LESS HERE. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MIDDLE 70S. IN GENERAL, TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A SOLID 25F-30F
DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT, LOOK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDES THE OUTER EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. NO
WASHOUTS ARE EXPECTED. NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL TO EITHER SIDE OF
60F.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* COOL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN FRIDAY, UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
FRIDAY IS NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF THURSDAY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
NO MORE, AND THERE IS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS ALLOWS
FOR QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, LEADS
TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN. LIKE THURSDAY,
FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT, MOST OF THE DAY FEATURES DRY PERIODS
THAN WET. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND IS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND
CONTINUES THE NORTHEAST FLOW, TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT A RETURN TO THE
SUMMER WARMTH SUNDAY THOUGH NEXT WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS DISCUSSED PRIOR, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL. THIS ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRING SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IN GENERALLY IT DOES
LOOK TO STAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE ENSEMBLES DO
SHOW PROBS OF 0.5", THE GEFS AT 40-60%, ENS DOES NOT SHOW THIS,
BUT HAS EVEN LOWER PROBABILITES OF 0.1" AT 20-40%, WHILE THE CMC
HAS 10-30% OF 0.5" AND +70% OF 0.1". SOMETHING TO WATCH, THOUGH
THE BETTER FORCING DOES LOOK TO BE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DON'T GO CANCELING ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS JUST YET. BRIEFLY DRIER
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDES COOL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
80S ON SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS NEARING 70F. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD APPROACH THE LOW 90S, ENSEMBLES SHOW
+90F PROBABILITES ARE BETWEEN 30-50% ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SHOWER CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.
TODAY & TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN EXACT LOCATION AND
TIMING. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA TO 18-20 KNOTS.
FRIDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN EXACT LOCATION AND
TIMING. EAST WIND BECOMES EAST/SOUTHEAST 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TREND, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TREND, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS, GUSTS OF 22 TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS 3 TO 4
FEET WITH SOUTHERN OUTER MOST WATERS NEARING 5 FEET. OPT'D NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEARING 25
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING 4-5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. LIKELY WILL NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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