249
FXUS61 KBOX 261913
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
313 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MODEST ONSHORE BREEZES. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
305 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR COOLER
NIGHTTIME LOWS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
* HIT OR MISS RAIN SHOWERS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT MAJORITY OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STAYS DRY.
DETAILS:
TODAY'S BEEN QUITE A BIT COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID,
DRIVEN BY NE ONSHORE FLOW WITH SFC RIDGING EXTENDING INTO
ME/NORTHERN NH. AND BY QUITE A BIT COOLER, 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 20-25 DEGREES COOLER. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS HAS ALSO RESULTED, AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL NY
MOVES ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING SOME RETURNS BUT MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND.
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER THRU MIDNIGHT BUT THINK THE
RADAR PRESENTATION'S BARK IS WORSE THAN THE BITE AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MAKES GREATER
SOUTHWARD INROADS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS PULLING SOUTHWARD/OFFSHORE, WITH DRY WEATHER. STILL
OVERALL CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WITH A CONTINUED E TO NE WIND.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
305 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY, PEEKS OF SUN LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
* INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, STARTING
TO TURN A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT STILL TOLERABLE.
DETAILS:
A 1024 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING SE FROM ME/NH WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM IT TO THE BERKSHIRES. IT NOW
LOOKS AS THOUGH FRIDAY ENDS UP BEING DRIER THAN NOT, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BEING IN THE NARROW/PINCHED WARM
SECTOR WEST OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. ALTHOUGH WE
START OFF MOSTLY CLOUDY, IT'S POSSIBLE EASTERN AREAS COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS TOWARD SOME PEEKS OF SUN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THINK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS
TO ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
TOLERABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S).
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TOWARD OVERCAST THEN RETURNS FRI EVENING,
ALONG WITH A RISE IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY LEVEL IN THE OVERNIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THAT BEING SAID,
WITH RAIN ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FALLING INTO THE
RIDGE HELPING TO REINFORCE IT, I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC WE'LL TRULY
BREAK OUT INTO THE WARMER AND SIGNIFICANTLY MORE HUMID AIRMASS
THAT LIES WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. STILL, INCREASING RISK FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVING TOWARD THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT A RETURN TO THE
SUMMER WARMTH SUNDAY THOUGH NEXT WEEK.
* BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS COMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS DISCUSSED PRIOR, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND FLOW BECOMES
NEARLY ZONAL. THIS ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION
AND BRING SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, IN GENERALLY IT DOES
LOOK TO STAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE ENSEMBLES DO
SHOW PROBS OF 0.5", THE GEFS AT 40-60%, ENS DOES NOT SHOW THIS,
BUT HAS EVEN LOWER PROBABILITES OF 0.1" AT 20-40%, WHILE THE CMC
HAS 10-30% OF 0.5" AND +70% OF 0.1". SOMETHING TO WATCH, THOUGH
THE BETTER FORCING DOES LOOK TO BE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DON'T GO CANCELING ANY OUTDOOR EVENTS JUST YET. BRIEFLY DRIER
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STORMS ON TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDES COOL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY. A WARM UP FOLLOWS SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
80S ON SUNDAY. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHS RETURN TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80S, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS NEARING 70F. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD APPROACH THE LOW 90S, ENSEMBLES SHOW
+90F PROBABILITES ARE BETWEEN 30-50% ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR BASES; COULD BE SOME PASSING, SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST REST OF THE AFTERNOON THRU ABOUT 04Z
FRI. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT
RESTRICT VISBY. NE TO E WINDS AROUND 10 KT THRU THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONTINUES, WITH DRY WEATHER. E TO SE WINDS 5-10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR EARLY, ALTHOUGH CATEGORIES DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 03Z TO IFR LEVELS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MIST/FOG. SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY BR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA, PATCHY
BR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, PATCHY BR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY BR.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NE TO E WINDS RANGE FROM 15-25 KT, WITH WAVES 3-5 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT
BUT SHOULDN'T RESTICT VISBYS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY
FOG. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...MCMINN
AVIATION...LOCONTO/MCMINN
MARINE...LOCONTO/MCMINN
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