286
FXUS61 KBOX 270802
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
402 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MODEST ONSHORE BREEZES. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* COOL AND CLOUDY DAY, BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A QUIET AND COOL START ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SET UP TODAY AS IT WAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, 1025MB, ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE, GIVING THE
REGION A NORTHEAST WIND. CLOUDS LINGER, WITH BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. DESPITE CLOUD COVER,
THE DAY IS A DRY ONE. TEMPERATURE-WISE, ON SHORE WINDS KEEP US BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S,
WEST OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND RHODE ISLAND ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SPOT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND COOL CONDITIONS.
* WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LOCATION DEPENDENT,
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT: WARM FRONT IS OFF TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO POP-UP SHOWERS. DO
THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY
AND LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, AN OVERCAST NIGHT
WITH NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS AND
SHOWERS WIND DOWN LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET, BUT GIVEN THE WAA
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CHALLENGING, DUE TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BUST, DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REACHES. CURRENT THINKING, THE FRONT
BECOMES HUNG UP NEAR THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE COOLER IN THE 60S, THOUGH IT WILL BE
FAR WARMER ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT IS THE INBETWEEN, WHERE WE EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND THINK THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS
POTENTIAL TO REACH 80F. DERIVED TEMPERATURES BASED ON HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE HREF AND CONSSHORT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND, ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THERE. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH, CLEARING
THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
350 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S GOING INTO NEXT WEEK
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY...
BRIEFLY DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS
TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. WE'LL ALSO LIKELY SEE
DEWPOINTS RETURN THE THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, CREATING QUITE
MUGGY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR CIGS. NE TO E WINDS AROUND 10 KT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONTINUES, WITH DRY WEATHER. E TO SE WINDS 5-10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR EARLY, DIMINISHING TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST 05-09Z AS
STRATUS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG DEVELOP. SE WINDS AROUND 5 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NE TO E WINDS RANGE FROM 15-25 KT, WITH WAVES 3-5 FT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS, THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT
BUT SHOULDN'T RESTRICT VISBYS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
256.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...MCMINN
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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