219
FXUS61 KBOX 270826
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
426 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH FRIDAY,
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MODEST ONSHORE BREEZES. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
SATURDAY WITH A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* COOL AND CLOUDY DAY, BREAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
A QUIET AND COOL START ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH
CLOUDY SKIES. A SIMILAR SET UP TODAY AS IT WAS ON THURSDAY WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, 1025MB, ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE, GIVING THE
REGION A NORTHEAST WIND. CLOUDS LINGER, WITH BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. DESPITE CLOUD COVER,
THE DAY IS A DRY ONE. TEMPERATURE-WISE, ON SHORE WINDS KEEP US BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S,
WEST OF WORCESTER COUNTY AND RHODE ISLAND ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
IN THE MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SPOT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND COOL CONDITIONS.
* WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LOCATION DEPENDENT,
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT: WARM FRONT IS OFF TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO POP-UP SHOWERS. DO
THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY
AND LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, AN OVERCAST NIGHT
WITH NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS AND
SHOWERS WIND DOWN LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. REST OF
THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE DRY PERIODS THAN WET, BUT GIVEN THE WAA
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE CHALLENGING, DUE TO THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
WARM FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BUST, DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REACHES. CURRENT THINKING, THE FRONT
BECOMES HUNG UP NEAR THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR OF NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS.
AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE COOLER IN THE 60S, THOUGH IT WILL BE
FAR WARMER ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. IT IS THE INBETWEEN, WHERE WE EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S AND THINK THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS
POTENTIAL TO REACH 80F. DERIVED TEMPERATURES BASED ON HIGHER-RES
GUIDANCE HREF AND CONSSHORT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE SOUTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND, ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THERE. COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH, CLEARING
THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRYING OUT SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
WILL BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.
* A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL
NOT BE AS HOT AS THIS PAST WEEK.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW
IN CANADA LEADS TO CYCLONIC FLOW THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, SUNDAY IS TRENDING DRIER WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS CONTINUES DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AS FOR TUESDAY, MUCH OF THE DAY IS LOOKING DRY, BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EXITS THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THURSDAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POP-UP
SHOWERS WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
FINALLY, A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
LOW 80S, BUT QUICKLY WARMS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BOTH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POST COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE KNOCKED DOWN
TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEW POINTS ARE
MANAGEABLE MOST DAYS IN THE 60S, WHILE TUESDAY THESE CLIMB TO THE
LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DRY WEATHER. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR, DIMINISHING TO MVFR, THEN IFR FROM WEST TO EAST 06-012Z AS
STRATUS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR. SPOT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THUNDER ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS 06Z SATURDAY.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND RANGE FROM
15 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH WAVES 3-5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS,
A SCA CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS,
THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER,
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME PASSING SHOWERS TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
WIND SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FEET.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255-
256.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...DOOLEY
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...DOOLEY
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