442
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
150 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA AND NORTHER CT. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK FALLS ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
7PM UPDATE:
THINKING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ALL BUT OVER AS STORMS IN
WESTERN NY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE COULD SEE BE SOME LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT OVER THE BERKSHIRES TONIGHT, BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING HEAVY AT THIS POINT. LOW STATUS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS ADVECTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY
MILD TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SUNNY AND WARM SUNDAY!
COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND NORTHWEST FLOW USHERS IN A DRIER
AND WARMER AIRMASS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT INCREASES AS WELL, LEADING TO A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 925MB TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF +20C,
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO HIGH 80S. DEW POINTS
ARE MANAGEABLE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WHILE THE
COASTAL PLAIN ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
KEY POINTS
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
* MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID- LEVEL FLOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO +18 TO +20 °C,
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH
FULL SUNSHINE. WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY, DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND LOW 70S FOR TUESDAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 95°F ON MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED
95°F ON TUESDAY.
500MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INGREDIENTS FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY,
WITH SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. THE MAIN QUESTIONS
THAT REMAIN ARE WHETHER THE FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS AND WHETHER CLOUD COVER AND EARLY-DAY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CLEAR OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 10
°C/KM AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. THE SECONDARY
THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN, WITH PWATS CLOSING IN ON 2.5
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT. THINKING STORM MODE
WILL BE A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS, BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT SHOULD A DISCRETE SUPERCELL FORM OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE.
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR, WHILE EASTERN
TERMINALS ARE IFR/LIFR. RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR FOR THE
EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. LIGHT WINDS.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING IFR/MVFR FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THROUGH 16Z TO AS
LATE AS 18Z, KACK COULD REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTS
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE
LIKELY FOR EASTERN COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS, RESULTING IN ON SHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW A KBOS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND WHILE THE ISLANDS HAVE A LIGHT WEST WIND.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS, MODERATE IN
TIMING.
IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 12Z AND MVFR VIABILITY'S. OPT'D FOR A
PROB30 09Z-12Z FOR BRIEF LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VIABILITY'S. HAVE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, BECOMING VFR AT LATEST
15Z OR 16Z. WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING, THEN SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN CLOSER TO 18Z AND IS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SEA
BREEZE KICKS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 00Z-02Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS AND FOG WITH
PATCHY AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH HIT-OR-
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEAR THE
EASTERN WATERS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AREAS OF MARINE FOG COULD
REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE COAST.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS AND W/SW WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL
VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5
FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MCMINN
NEAR TERM...MCMINN/KP
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...DOOLEY
MARINE...MCMINN
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