974
FXUS61 KBOX 291520
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1120 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WARMING UP MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* GORGEOUS CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
CLEARING STILL ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG STILL PREVALENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS, A CASE OF HIGH DEW POINTS OVER THE RELATIVELY COLDER
OCEAN WATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH WINDS CLOSELY, AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEABREEZES COULD BRING A PERIODS OF LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG BACK ONSHORE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECTING A GORGEOUS DAY FOR MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
BUT YOU MIGHT BE WAKING UP AND THINKING, REALLY? EASTERN MA
AND RI ARE STARTING THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG,
BUT DO NOT WORRY THIS ERODES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS DRIER
MOVES ON IN.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT INCREASES
TO DAY LEADS TO WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
FOR SUN TO BREAKOUT OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, COULD BE AS LATE
AS MIDDAY. TODAY BEGINS OUR NEXT WARM UP. 925MB TEMPERATURES
ARE +20C AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. CLOSER TO
THE COAST IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, LIKELY IN THE LOW
80S. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
MA, WHICH LIMITS THE WARMING. IT WILL FEEL A TAD MUGGY AS WELL,
WHILE MANAGEABLE, DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* HEATING UP ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF 90F.
FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, SOME INDICATIONS OF
COASTAL FOG REDEVELOPING, BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. URBAN CORES
STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY IS QUIET, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL
HAVE ANOTHER WARM DAY. AIRMASS IS DRY, OUTSIDE OF HIGHER
CLOUDS, SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN
+22C AND +24C, AS A RESULT, SHOULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AND WITH THE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH, WILL HAVE
INCREASING DEW POINTS, RISING TO THE MID 60S, MAKING IT FEEL A
LITTLE WARMER THAN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE, HEAT INDEX ARE
90F-93F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
KEY POINTS
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
* MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUES TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO +18 TO +20 °C, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH FULL SUNSHINE. WITH
SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHERLY, DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW
70S FOR TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BECOME NEEDED AS TUESDAY
WILL HAVE HEAT INDEX AT AND ABOVE 95F, BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON MONDAY AS WE NEED TWO CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH 95F HEAT INDEX.
500MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INGREDIENTS
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY,
WITH SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. THE MAIN QUESTIONS
THAT REMAIN ARE WHETHER THE FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING ENDS AND WHETHER CLOUD COVER AND EARLY-DAY WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CLEAR OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD AT THIS TIME APPEARS
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 10
°C/KM AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. THE SECONDARY
THREAT LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN, WITH PWATS CLOSING IN ON 2.5
INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT. THINKING STORM MODE
WILL BE A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS, BUT CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT SHOULD A DISCRETE SUPERCELL FORM OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE. AND AT THIS TIME, SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS ALL
OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK THAT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LINGERING IFR AROUND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH 16Z-18Z. WIND
SHIFTS W THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS 8 TO 12 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE
LIKELY FOR EASTERN COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS, RESULTING IN ONSHORE
FLOW AT KBOS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG RETURNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. LIGHT NW WIND
WHILE THE ISLANDS HAVE A LIGHT W WIND.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR AND DRY. SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS, MODERATE IN
TIMING.
W/SW WIND LATE THIS MORNING, THEN E/SE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN
CLOSER TO 18Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE
SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND MARINE FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF SHORE.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON YOUR LOCATIONS. SOUTHERN WATERS HAVE A WSW
WIND, THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ARE NW, BUT THE NEAR SHORE
EASTERN SEE A SEA BREEZE AND BECOME NE. SEAS ARE 2 TO 3 FEET.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DRY. PATCHY AREAS OF COASTAL FOG. LIGHT NW TO N WIND ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS AND W TO SW WIND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
ARE 2 TO 3 FEET.
MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DRY. ANY MORNING FOG ERODES. SW WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST
UNDER 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BELK/DOOLEY/MCMINN
MARINE...DOOLEY
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