626
FXUS61 KBOX 091746
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
146 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOT AS HOT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, THOSE IN FAR
NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS WILL HAVE THE MOST RELIEF, WHILE THE
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY REMAIN WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER ON THURSDAY, BEFORE REBOUNDING FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS WE ENTER A SUMMERY PATTERN, A
DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SIGNS OF DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, THEN FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SCATTERED SHOWERS PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING NORTH
OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDERS
* COOLER ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, THOUGH STILL
SEASONABLY WARM ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
* A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THESE NORTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDERS
WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOO.
THIS AFTERNOON IT'S NOTICEABLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS,
WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO HIT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S, THIS INCLUDING
BOSTON. MOVING INLAND AND WESTWARD, AWAY INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OCEAN, HIGHS ARE SEASONABLE REACHING THE LOWER 80S, WHILE
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF REACHING
THE UPPER 80S. HAVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS TODAY, THOUGH NOT TO THE
EXTENT EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT. FORCING ISN'T GREAT, WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO POP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, PWATS ARE STILL ELEVATED, 1.8" TO 2.0",
THUS ANY STORMS COULD PUT DOWN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DO HAVE A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN, PER WPC.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
TONIGHT: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS REMAIN OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, WHILE URBAN AREAS HOLD STEADY AROUND 70F.
THURSDAY: A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND WILL BE A SOURCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY. TIMING
IS EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH
THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE STORMS GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE. SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS, BUT IT WAS MENTIONED IN THEIR DISCUSSION, IF CONFIDENCE WERE
TO INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE, PART OF THE NORTHEAST COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. AREA AT THE GREATEST RISK ARE WESTERN
AREAS OF MA & CT, WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE ROBUST, GETTING
INTO THE LOW 80S, WHILE EASTERN AREAS ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE COOLER OCEAN. ALSO, THERE IS STILL
A LOW RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER THE WPC ERO, WHICH KEPT THE
REGION UNDER A MARGINAL RISK ~ PWATS ARE ROUGHLY 1.5" TO 2.0" THUS
ANY STORMS COULD PUT DOWN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN INTO FRIDAY. STILL A
RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. IT'S LIKELY SATURDAY
IS THE DAY WHICH FEATURES THE LOWEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EVEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME, WITH THE RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
REST OF TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR HAVE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EVEN VFR CONDITIONS. THERE'S A CHANCE SOME EASTERN
TERMINALS MIGHT SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AS WELL BEFORE
SUNSET. AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND PRIMARILY FROM THE NE
ASIDE FROM PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SW WINDS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR/LIFR LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT PERHAPS SOME
LOWER END MVFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE DISTANT
INTERIOR. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 08Z. WINDS BECOMING CALM IN SOME AREAS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. MORE -SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING HOURS, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS THE DAY GOES ON. E TO
ENE WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR BRIEFLY BEFORE
BECOMING IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. SHRA TIMING MAY START
EARLIER THAN 14Z, BUT NO EARLIER THAN 10Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
CHANCE FOR SPOT SHOWER THIS EVENING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND OUT OF THE
NE ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS 2-4 FT.
THURSDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE SSE ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND OUT OF
THE E TO ESE ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...DOOLEY
SHORT TERM...DOOLEY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOOLEY/HRENCECIN
MARINE...DOOLEY
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