489
FXUS61 KBOX 120501
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
101 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DAILY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STILL A RISK FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. A BETTER
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXISTS ON MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH THEN LOOKS TO BREAK
AROUND FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND HUMID WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
QUIET BUT WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR OFFSHORE
MOVES IN FROM THE SE WINDS. DEWPOINTS AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, ALONG WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND HUMID AGAIN
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DETAILS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, CONTINUING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE MORE
IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
RISK REMAINS QUITE LIMITED; SHEAR LOOKS WEAK AND MLCAPE VALUES
WILL REACH JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
LOOKING POSSIBLE, AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MOST, WITH THE UPPER 70S OUT ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SE WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FOG LIKELY REDEVELOPING
AND LOWER STRATUS RETURNING. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S, WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND THAT RANGE AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER THE DISTANT INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SUNDAY.
* BETTER CHANCE AT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES SHOULD LIMIT POTENCY OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS.
* VERY WARM TO HOT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ELEVATED
HEAT INDICES AROUND 95-100F.
* COLD FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, BUT
ALSO A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS:
SUNDAY:
SUNDAY OVERALL LOOKS TO HAVE A SIMILAR THEME WEATHER-WISE AS DOES
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A REGIME OF MODEST SOUTHEAST
ONSHORE FLOW GOVERNED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE BERKSHIRES
AND HILLS IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY ALONG WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POP-UP WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS. HOWEVER COMPARED TO SAT,
PROGGED INSTABILITY VALUES IS LESS, SO THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS INTO WESTERN MA AND CT SHOULD PROVE LESS AND ALSO
GENERALLY LESS POTENT. WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE ANOTHER RISK FOR
OVERNIGHT PATCHY RADIATION FOG AND STRATUS AS WELL. HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S (MID/UPPER 70S CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH ONSHORE FLOW, WITH
MID/UPPER 80S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY:
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY OFFERS A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A WIDER PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAN
COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MIDLEVELS
AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. STILL PRETTY WEAK WIND FIELDS OVERALL, ALBEIT A TOUCH
STRONGER THAN PRIOR DAYS. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE ALSO STILL ON THE
LOWER SIDE. WOULDN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL OR TWO BUT THINKING
ANY STORMS WOULD BE MORE GARDEN-VARIETY THAN OTHERWISE. HIGHS ARE
GENERALLY SIMILAR IN THE MIDDLE 80S, BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING INCREASING
HEAT INDICES TO ELEVATED LEVELS, IN PARTICULAR FOR WED AND THURS.
BOTH DAYS COULD FEATURE HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S, HIGHEST IN THE CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS.
HIGH TEMPS STAND TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST.
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT GOVERNING OUR WEATHER. THAT SAID, THERE ARE STILL A SMALLER
MINORITY OF GEPS/EPS MEMBERS WHICH SHOW SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
EMANATING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS/GULFSTREAM CURRENT
MOVING OFF TOWARDS THE NE. WERE THIS TO TRANSPIRE, IT COULD BRING A
RISK FOR CLOUDINESS AND SOME SHOWERS. WITH FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OFFERING THIS POTENTIAL, THIS WETTER OUTCOME ISN'T CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST, BUT MAY NEED TO BE RE-CONSIDERED IF
THERE ARE MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SHOW RAINIER CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY:
FRIDAY COULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED HEAT AND HUMIDITY, BUT
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT IS SEASONABLY STRONG AND COULD
POINT TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS AROUND AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
BUT STILL ENOUGH TIME TO DRILL INTO THOSE DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS
AHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
REST OF TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE
IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION.
SATURDAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN, EXPECTING LOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO LIFT AND BURN OFF AROUND THE SAME TIME IT DID
YESTERDAY, BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WHERE CIGS MAY REMAIN LOW ALL DAY.
VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR AGAIN WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE
ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST. WENT WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA AT WESTERN
TERMINALS FOR NOW, BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER REMOVING.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MORE IFR/LIFR STRATUS BUILDS NORTH UNDER LIGHT ESE FLOW.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AGAIN, THEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LOW STRATUS DECK LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MVFR/IFR THROUGH ABOUT 13Z, THEN CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
THE THREAT HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY: SEAS 2-4 FT WITH E WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS UP
TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, REMAINING LIGHT IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT THAT MAY REDEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
NEAR TERM...HRENCECIN
SHORT TERM...HRENCECIN
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...LOCONTO/HRENCECIN
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