482
FXUS61 KBOX 210106
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
906 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL TURN COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS MAY
REACH 95 TO 100 DEGREES RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES.
SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF WHAT WE ARE EXPECTING FOR
FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE RISK FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* LAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD BAY
* OTHERWISE...DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WORKING INTO THE REGION
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER HAS
COME TO AN END. STILL ONE SMALL BATCH OF CONVECTION WAS CROSSING
CAPE COD BAY AND MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT PARTS OF THE CAPE.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
LOWERING HUMIDITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINT:
* VERY COMFORTABLE WEATHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
MONDAY:
MONDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A TOP 10 WEATHER DAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S TO EVEN THE UPPER 40S. OTHER
THAN A FEW FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH DUE TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY NIGHT:
STILL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET,
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID-40S TO THE LOW 50S AWAY
FROM COASTS AND URBAN AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* BEAUTIFUL TUE WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
* WARMING TREND BEGINS WED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
* HEAT & HUMIDITY ARRIVE THU WHICH MAY PEAK ON FRI WITH HIGHS 95-100
AND HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+ WILL BE POSSIBLE
* SUMMER HEAT & HUMIDITY MAY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
* A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT THE RISK FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN BEAUTIFUL WEATHER
ON TUESDAY. AFTER A COOL START...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE & LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
IN MANY LOCATIONS. LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND THE
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RECOVER WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH
THE RETURN OF HEAT & HUMIDITY. 850T RISE TO AROUND +18C/+19C BY THU
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90+.
850T MAY FURTHER CLIMB TO +20C/+21C BY FRI...WHICH MAY ALLOW MANY
LOCATIONS TO REACH BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES AND CHALLENGE RECORD
HIGHS. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY TOO WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105+ DEGREES...SO HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT FIELDS MAY
MAINTAIN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO SOME
EXTENT...BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE
WILL BE THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY FRI AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WE CERTAINLY WILL HAVE THE INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION BY
THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRESENT.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
00Z TAF UPDATE...
CLEARING FOLLOWS AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW WITH VFR TONIGHT AND MON.
SHOULD SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS MON WITH SCT-BKN VFR CLOUD BASES
050-060 ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE
VFR. LIGHT NNW WINDS AROUND 5KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
THURSDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY: WINDY WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT TODAY SHIFTING TO NW TONIGHT WITH A FEW 20-
25 KT POST-FRONTAL GUSTS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS FORM INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KP/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KP/FRANK
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