659
FXUS61 KBOX 061734
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
134 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY,
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
90+ DEGREE HEAT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE SUSPENDED ALOFT ON WED, BUT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER OTHERWISE WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL SMOKE ALOFT BASED ON HRRR VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT. THE COMBINATION OF SMOKE ALOFT AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH WILL HAVE A
CLOUDY LOOK AT TIMES. COOLER LOW LEVEL TEMPS, ONSHORE FLOW AND
LIMITED SUNSHINE WILL KEEP TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80,
COOLEST EAST COASTAL MA AND WARMEST CT VALLEY WHERE LOWER 80S
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THERE COULD BE A SPOT SHOWER IN
WESTERN MA WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, OTHERWISE A DRY
DAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND COMFORTABLY COOL TONIGHT
* INCREASING SUNSHINE THU WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENG TONIGHT BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL PRONE
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENG WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS NW MA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF SNE WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS
SO EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, COOLEST
EAST COASTAL MA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
* HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF TEMPS IN THE 90S.
PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SE US COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND BUT LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT,
AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME 90+ DEGREE TEMPS BY SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING PROBS OF 90+. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE
IN THE 50S THROUGH SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COMFORTABLE COOL NIGHTS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY.
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF 90+ WHICH IS A STRONG
HEAT SIGNAL FOR A DAY 6-7 ENSEMBLE FORECAST. INCREASING CONFIDENCE
OF SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MAY BE DEALING
WITH HEAT HEADLINES DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS GET. NOT SEEING
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION MON AND TUE AS INSTABILITY IS MUTED
AND ENSEMBLE PROBS OF 0.10" QPF ARE QUITE LOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
REST OF TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOS, ACK, & HYA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE
OFFSHORE MARINE STRATUS DECK MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
POSSIBLY BOS THIS EVENING. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND AND HOW LONG
THE STRATUS DECK LASTS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DECREASING SMOKE ESSPICALLY FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
ENE TO ESE AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK FORMATION OVER SE MA
IF WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. E-SE WIND 5-10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT ARRIVES AROUND 23Z AND
DISSIPATES AFTER 01Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE TAF PERIOD WITH E TO NE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LIGHT SSE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU. NE WINDS
10-20 KT TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT, THEN E-SE WINDS 5-15 KT THU.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KJC
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