577
FXUS61 KBOX 061837
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
237 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
BRINGING DRY AND FAIR WEATHER. MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND COOL LOW TEMPERATURES. OTHER
THAN A SPOT SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW,
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND WITH 90+ DEGREE HEAT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON
* MAINLY DRY AND COOLER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
REST OF THE AFTERNOON
GOES TRUE-COLOR BAND SHOWS A DENSE LAYER OF SMOKE OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ARE CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHERE PM 2.5 CONCENTRATIONS ARE BETWEEN
100 AND 140 UG/M3. FURTHER EAST, A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW HAS
BROUGHT IMPROVEMENT AND WEBCAMS NEAR BOSTON ARE SHOWING BLUE SKIES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DAY! HRRR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
FORECASTS SHOW CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY, A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SUNSHINE AND KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
NOTICEABLY COOLER. HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR EASTERN MA AND
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
TEMPS AROUND 80 BY PEAK HEATING. THE OTHER DETAIL TO WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOST CAMS SHOW A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND PUSHING SOUTH
TOWARDS NORTHERN MA AROUND SUNSET. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT...
PLEASANT NIGHT AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER NEW ENGLAND. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG IN TYPICALLY FOG-PRONE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
* LESS SMOKE AND HAZE THURS
* SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER NEW ENG WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
DRY DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SPOT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS NW MA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT BETTER CHANCE WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF SNE WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL TEMPS
SO EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80, COOLEST
EAST COASTAL MA.
COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT AHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS, BUT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY; INTO THE 90S NEXT WEEK WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S SO IT WILL BE VERY HUMID
ONCE AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL ESSENTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT WITH A TROUGH SWINGING OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK.
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THIS SURFACE HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
SUNNY SKIES AROUND WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO PRECLUDE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM
MAKING ITS WAY TOO CLOSE; ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE IT
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE EXIT OF THE RIDGE A BIT
SO LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MONDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE PROBABILITY
INCREASES FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
THESE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO SERVE TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN HOTTER
THAN THE 90+ TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO A LIMITED EXTENT ON
SUNDAY BUT MORE WIDESPREAD MON-WED. YET TO BEEN SEEN IF WE'LL NEED
ANY HEAT HEADLINES, BUT THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE'LL BE GOING FROM
A PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THIS WEEK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
REST OF TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOS, ACK, & HYA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE
OFFSHORE MARINE STRATUS DECK MOVING EAST WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/LIFR CIGS TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
POSSIBLY BOS THIS EVENING. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND AND HOW LONG
THE STRATUS DECK LASTS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DECREASING SMOKE ESSPICALLY FOR WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
ENE TO ESE AT 5-10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.
ALSO WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL STRATUS DECK FORMATION OVER SE MA
IF WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. E-SE WIND 5-10 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
MAIN CONCERN IS A MARINE STRATUS DECK MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT ARRIVES AROUND 23Z AND
DISSIPATES AFTER 01Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE VFR FOR
THE TAF PERIOD WITH E TO NE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LIGHT SSE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THU. NE WINDS
10-20 KT TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT, THEN E-SE WINDS 5-15 KT THU.
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ002-003-
008>011.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BW/FT
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK/FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...BW/FT
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