128
FXUS61 KBOX 071635
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
1235 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH 90 DEGREE
HEAT POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD 90S NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY WITH LESS SMOKE AND HAZE, ESPECIALLY E
* TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TAPPING INTO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WHERE CAPES UP TO 500 J/KG. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST.
HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST OF NEW ENG TODAY WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL PUSH SMOKE FURTHER WESTWARD. STILL SOME SMOKE ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG ON HRRR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE PRODUCT
WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME HAZY/MILKY SKIES, BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LIFT OUT WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MA WHERE LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT BETTER CHANCE
WILL BE TO THE NW. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL TEMP FIELD SO EXPECT
HIGHS MID 70S TO AROUND 80, COOLEST EAST COASTAL MA. DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S SO COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND COMFORTABLY COOL TONIGHT
* MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY
NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH FRI, BUILDING EAST OF NEW ENG WITH RIDGING EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS SNE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRI. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BRING LOW TEMPS INTO THE 50S TONIGHT WITH NICE RECOVERY ON FRI AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80 TO 85. HOWEVER, MODEST LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL
BE TEMPERED BY CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST, WITH HIGH
MOSTLY UPPER 70S HERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND WARM SATURDAY. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
* WARMING TREND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEAT MON-WED WITH
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SAT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL, BUT WARMING
TEMPS INTO THE LOW-MID 80S AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SW. THEN
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT INTO NEW ENG,
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PEAKING NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
TRANSITION DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING 90 ACROSS SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD 90S MON-WED IN SNE AS 850 MB
TEMPS PEAK AROUND 20C. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
MANAGEABLE AND FALL SHORT OF OPPRESSIVE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. BUT HEAT HEADLINES
MAY STILL BE NEEDED AS MID 90S TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKING
AHEAD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL A DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY AS FORCING AND INSTABILITY IS
PRETTY WEAK. IN FACT, EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY LOW PROBS FOR
0.10" QPF. MAY SEE AN INCREASING RISK OF CONVECTION BY WED AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY APPROACHES BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
REST OF TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. E TO SE WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS.
FRIDAY:
VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ON THE
EAST COAST. WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTER 12Z.
VFR. SEA BREEZE KICKS OUT AROUND 00Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ANOTHER SEA BREEZE FRIDAY TO MOVE IN AROUND
15Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRI WITH
E-SE WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY
APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...KJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page