229
FXUS61 KBOX 080500
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
100 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM DAYS AND COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH 90 DEGREE
HEAT POSSIBLE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD 90S NEXT WEEK WITH
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE REGION, BRINGING CONTINUED
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ANY DIURNAL SHOWERS THAT FORMED ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, BUT HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 50S TO EVEN UPPER 40S, WHICH WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 50S OUTSIDE URBAN AREAS
AND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF
RADIATION FOG AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, QUICKLY BURNING OFF WITH
SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
FRIDAY:
ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL STAY CONFINED TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES.
FRIDAY NIGHT:
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP IN THE LOW 50S, OR
EVEN THE UPPER 40S, IN LOW-LYING AREAS. POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY. COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
* BUILDING HEAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAT HEADLINES.'
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SEASONABLE ALBEIT WARMER DAY SATURDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. ONE MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS STARTING ON SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS
REACHING THE 90-DEGREE MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THE
CORE OF THE HEAT ARRIVES STARTING MONDAY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURS. THE NBM IS SHOWING UNUSUALLY HIGH (80-90%) PROBABILITIES OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WORKWEEK. THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE ALONG THE VARIOUS RIVER VALLEYS
ESPECIALLY THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT LONG DURATION EVENT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING PERSISTENT AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK DESPITE RISING
DEWPOINTS AS FORCING WILL BE MINIMAL. GEFS AND EPS GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO PAINT A DRY PICTURE WITH PROBS OF 0.10" QPF ONLY RISING TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT! BEST CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LOW LYING AREAS. SE WIND
5-10 KT TODAY AND SAT, LIGHT TO CALM WIND TONIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPING
14-15Z.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI WITH E-SE
WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KP/FT
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...KJC/FT
MARINE...KP/FT
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