097
FXUS61 KBOX 091815
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
215 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND A
COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER RETURNS
SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE HEAT IN THE INTERIOR, THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD HEAT AND MODERATE HUMIDITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT
MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
BY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL SO A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS. SLIGHT WARMING IN LOW LEVELS
SO HIGHS SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER, IN THE LOW-MID 80S, BUT SEA-BREEZES
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. MIXING OF A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S DURING MAX HEATING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND COMFORTABLY COOL TONIGHT
* WARMER AND BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID SUNDAY
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AIRMASS MODERATION WILL RESULTING SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPS WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 50S. PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER NEW ENG. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 16-17C
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE CT
VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE MA. IT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE HUMID AS HIGHER
PWATS MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT WELL SHORT OF OPPRESSIVE LEVELS
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF HEAT AND MODERATE HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. HEAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE,
THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT FRI
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
OVERALL A DRY PATTERN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT THROUGH WED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS NEW ENG WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPS PEAK NEAR 20C
TUE-WED WHEN TEMPS COULD REACH MID 90S IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS,
OTHERWISE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WED. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS HEAT EPISODES THIS
SUMMER, WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW-MID 60S
DURING MAX HEATING. STILL, WE EXPECT HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 90S SO IT IS POSSIBLE WE WILL NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR A PORTION
OF SNE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MEAN SOME RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS LOWS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS DECREASES AFTER WED AS IT APPEARS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE STARTING WED WHICH MAY BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE 90+ DEGREE HEAT
COULD LINGER INTO THU ALTHOUGH LESS CERTAINTY, THEN COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 80S MORE LIKELY BY FRI BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AS HIGH
PRES, SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF INSTABILITY KEEP STORMS AWAY.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FROM WED ONWARD GIVEN SPREAD IN THE
DETERMINISTIC QPF GUIDANCE, BUT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW PROB FOR SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, NO ORGANIZED PRECIP EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT S TO SE WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: MODERATE CONFIDENCE
VFR WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. SEA BREEZE MOVES IN AROUND 13Z, AND PICKS UP TO 14-15
KNOTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE KICKS OUT OUT 01Z
TONIGHT.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
CALM WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH E-SE WINDS 15
KT OR LESS BECOMING S DURING SUNDAY. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KP/FT
MARINE...KJC
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