305
FXUS61 KBOX 100509
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
109 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. VERY
WARM TO HOT WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR 90 DEGREE
HEAT IN THE INTERIOR. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT AND MODERATE
HUMIDITY THEN TAKES HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT BY FRIDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON
* ONE MORE COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND UNFOLDING WITH MOST AREAS QUICKLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. IT'S A RATHER COMFORTABLE
DAY AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOW 50S WITH A WELL-MIXED AND
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING WARMING TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE
UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS 90 DEGREES.
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT FOR MOST OF US WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECTING
INCREASING DEWPOINTS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMER AND BECOMING A BIT MORE HUMID SUNDAY
THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENG.
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 16-17C WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE CT VALLEY AND
INTERIOR NE MA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME A BIT MORE HUMID AS
HIGHER PWATS MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT WELL SHORT OF OPPRESSIVE
LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF HEAT WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
* CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, A DRY PATTERN OVERALL.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER NEW ENGLAND TO START THE WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATING FORCE THROUGH MIDWEEK. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES SIT AROUND 25C WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 20C FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
DROP OFF AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY,
DROPPING UPPER LEVEL TEMPS BY AROUND 5C. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY STILL
SIT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, BUT AFTER THAT THEY DROP INTO THE
LOW 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS HOT STRETCHES FROM THIS SUMMER, DEW POINTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH, MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S.
ENSEMBLE PROBS STILL INDICATE CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES TO REACH THE
MID-90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE MERRIMACK AND
CT RIVER VALLEYS, SO FUTURE HEAT ADVISORIES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN WITH IT.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL, SO TIMING AND LOCATION
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ASIDE FROM THESE LOW CHANCES, THE
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS DRY AND WARM.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, ASIDE FROM LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND NEAR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT S/SW WINDS EXPECTED WITH
SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS TODAY AND MON.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE
TSRA.
THURSDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH E-SE WINDS 15
KT OR LESS BECOMING S DURING SUNDAY, THEN SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HRENCECIN/FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...HRENCECIN
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...HRENCECIN/FT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page