585
FXUS61 KBOX 151821
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
221 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. IN
ADDITION...ERIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC MAY BRING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF TO SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES LATE NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* FANTASTIC START TO THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS & LOW
HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN
TOWNSHIPS BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S,
EXCEPT THE HIGH 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORES AND
CAPE/ISLANDS. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR A COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD... TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SUNNY AND DRY, EXCEPT SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY, WE'LL
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE INTERIOR COULD BRING ABOUT
SOME BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS, BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S... UPPER 70S UNDER SEA BREEZES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* WARMER AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON/EVENING. FEW STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE.
* COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY.
* ERIN MAY BRING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/HIGH SURF LATE NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WAVE, SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE/DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE LOW TO MID 90S. DAYTIME HEATING, MOISTURE, AND
AN APPROACHING FRONT/SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED OVERALL WHICH WILL KEEP COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN STABILITY, DRY
AIR IN PLACE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (25-45%)
FOR AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR
TWO WITH MLCAPE VALUES 50-1000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR (0-6KM
BULK SHEAR 20-25 KTS).
NEXT WEEK:
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING IN A COOL AIRMASS FOR NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AIRMASS TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES 10-12C. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN
THE 70S, PERHAPS A FEW 80S IN THE CT VALLEY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
GENERALLY NW WITH A TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR
TWO MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK FORCING THIS ISN'T A TON OF AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND PROBABILITIES FOR THESE SHOWERS, BUT WEDS-THURS
HAVE A LARGER CHUNK OF MEMBERS ON BOARD FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN SPOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS.
STILL VERY FAR AWAY, BUT OVERALL ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICS HAS
SEEN AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIN AS IT RECURVES N/NE'WARD (IN
SOME FASHION) LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT, ANY IMPACT WILL BE
OFFSHORE (MARINE, RIP CURRENTS, SURF). JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP
WATCHING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FLIRT WITH THE
CAPE AND ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME
PATCHY LOCALIZED GROUND FOG MAY RESULT IN SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
THOSE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW-LYING LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
BECOMING CALM/LIGHT TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. S WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS WITH ESE SEA BREEZES ON
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY.
CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE
WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...BUT
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME SE ON SAT REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS, CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING
5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCMINN/MENSCH
NEAR TERM...MCMINN
SHORT TERM...MCMINN
LONG TERM...MENSCH
AVIATION...MCMINN/FT
MARINE...MCMINN
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