623
FXUS61 KBOX 160703
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VERY PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRIEFLY RETURNS SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
DRY WEATHER DOMINATES NEXT WEEK...BUT A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IN
ADDITION...ERIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF
TO SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED INTERIOR SPOT SHOWER
* HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IMMEDIATE COAST
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH MILDER LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S
DETAILS...
TODAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST TODAY...BUT
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER BRINGING A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE
WEEKEND. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SOME DIURNAL
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THEM ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS THERE FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GENERALLY DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN
CHECK FOR AUGUST STANDARDS...SO A VERY PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE FURTHER EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SO WE MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG PATCHES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
DRY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME URBAN HEAT ISLANDS ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* HOT & HUMID SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S
* A FEW SHOWERS & T-STORMS SUN PM WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WX RISK
* TURNING COOLER AND LESS HUMID LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
DETAILS...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
HOT AND HUMID DAY TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. 850T WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN +17C/+18C AND THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ON THE
VERY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE WELL UP INTO THE
60S/NEAR 70.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...THE HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL HELP TO GENERATE 1000 TO 2000
J/KG OF CAPE. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ALSO VERY MARGINAL ON THE ORDER
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE
ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY DOES NOT SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...BUT GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DCAPES
THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. IN FACT...THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS DO SHOW THE
RISK FOR ISOLATED/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THIS CONVECTIVE RISK...COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON A NORTHEAST BREEZE. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* COOLER/LESS HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
* HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 NEXT WEEK
* DRY WEATHER DOMINATES BUT A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
* HURRICANE ERIN BRINGS HIGH SURF/DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS BY MID WEEK
DETAILS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS TOO. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS
EVEN SOME 40S IF WE HAVE A FEW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUPS IN
THE TYPICAL COOLER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY WEATHER...BUT WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OR TWO GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHETHER WE ARE IMPACTED AT ALL WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THESE FEATURES...BUT
BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE IN THE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY THU TIME
FRAME. WE WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WELL TO
OUR SOUTHWEST...SO JUST LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND NOT A SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
LASTLY...WE WILL BE WATCHING HURRICANE ERIN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC. THE HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT ERIN INITIALLY MOVING NW...WILL TURN N AND EVENTUALLY
NE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR A
DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT BEING SAID...ERIN WILL
GENERATE LARGE/LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL AND BRING THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS/HIGH SURF BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS
OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
GIVEN THIS IS A PRIME TIME FOR FOLKS TO VENTURE INTO THE OCEAN
WATERS GIVEN THEY ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY AT THEIR WARMEST.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS BECOMING
SSE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR THIS EVENING...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SSW.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STRONG T-STORMS
POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF/LOCALIZED
LOWER CONDITIONS. SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE NE LATER
SUN NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
TUESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SE
WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT TO THE SW LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT NE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
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