856
FXUS61 KBOX 081926
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
326 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE COD,
AND THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
310 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY AND COOL EVENING, WITH A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND.
* LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW MA, WITH MID 40S TO LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE, MILDEST FURTHER EAST ONE GOES.
DETAILS:
A SPRAWLING, 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH PA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM IT INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES,
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A STREAM OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WAS ADVECTING
NORTHWARD, LEADING TO A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA AND MUCH OF RI.
NOT MUCH OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR
SKIES IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A CONTINUED CANOPY OF
HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE
SHOULD RADIATE PRETTY WELL AS THE AIRMASS IS COOL AND DRY, WITH THE
MOST OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG COOLING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MA AND NORTHERN CT. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, A MODEST NE WIND AND THE HIGH
CLOUDS MAY LEAD TO LESS ROBUST COOLING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
LOWER-MID 50S, WITH LOW 40S NW MA, MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR SOUTH SHORE,
CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
310 PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGES:
* MIX OF SUN AND HIGH CLOUDS TUE, BUT WITH INCREASED NORTHEAST
BREEZES. HIGHS UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, TO THE
LOW TO MID 70S INLAND.
* STILL BREEZY, BUT CLOUD COVER INCREASES IN ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUE NIGHT, WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. LOWS MID 40S NW MA, TO THE 50S FOR MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, NEAR 60 NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
DETAILS:
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
FOR TUE, NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MORE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS NE WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10-15 MPH. WE'LL ALSO CONTINUE
TO HAVE A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS, BUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS/POSSIBLE
STRATUS MAY BEGIN TO LURK INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
SUNDOWN. THESE LOWER CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY
NORTHWESTWARD, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER THAN THE I-
84 CORRIDOR. THERE MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TOO MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST, CAPE AND ISLANDS TUE NIGHT BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME IS DRY. WHILE HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S-NEAR 70 NEAR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COAST AND IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S IN INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TUE, LOW TEMPS TUE
NIGHT ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH LESS CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST AND MORE
CLOUDS AND A STEADY NORTHEAST BREEZE THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST ONE GOES.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND;
FOR EASTERN MA, EASTERN CT AND RI, CLOUDS AND INCREASED BREEZES MAY
KEEP LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 OUT
OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IT MAY STILL FEEL A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THAT THOUGH WITH THE ONSHORE BREEZES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED & WED NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST,
OTHERWISE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
* SEASONABLE TEMPS MOST DAYS, WITH THE COOLEST DAY ON WED AND THE
WARMEST ON THU
COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST ON WED WILL MOVE NE AND TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE BENCHMARK LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THU.
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW PRES WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
OVER THE OCEAN AND APPROACH SNE DURING WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND ASSOCD RAINFALL WILL GET. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PLUME OF 2
INCH PWATS REACHING THE ISLANDS AND IT IS THE WETTEST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUITE. GEFS HAS MODERATE TO HIGH PROBS OF 0.10" QPF FOR
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
MEANWHILE, EPS AND CMC ENS SHOW SIMILAR PROBS ALTHOUGH A BIT LOWER.
BEST CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT WILL BE OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS WITH DECREASING PROBS INTO INTO SE MA AND PORTIONS
OF RI. CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S,
WITH BEST CHANCE OF 70S IN THE CT VALLEY WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED.
LOW PRES PULLS AWAY THU WITH DRYING CONDITIONS THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN ON FRI AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
POTENT SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA AND MOVING TO THE WEST OF SNE SOMETIME SUN INTO MON. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT MON.
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON THU WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND
925 MB TEMPS 16-18C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER
80S, COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THEN MAINLY SEASONABLE TEMPS
FRI THROUGH MON WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 70S, COOLER EASTERN MA COAST WITH
DAILY SEA-BREEZES, AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
18Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, WITH CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR EASTERN AIRPORTS. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT NE
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR, CONTINUED CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AIRPORTS. NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KT FOR INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
FOR EASTERN MA, RI, AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AIRPORTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, BUT MODERATE ON
TIMING AND NORHTWESTWARD COVERAGE OF STRATUS.
GENERALLY VFR FOR MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH COASTAL
STRATUS COULD LURK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS AS TUE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW CHANCE AT A RAIN SHOWER OR DRIZZLE
UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS. NE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KT
INTERIOR AIRPORTS, AND AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS, AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4-6 FT. NE
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATE TONIGHT, BUT ESPECIALLY TUE WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 KT, AND AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. LOW CHANCE AT PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT
RAIN SHOWER, WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF SEAS
APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ255-256.
SYNOPSIS...KJC/LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/LOCONTO
MARINE...KJC/LOCONTO
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