093
FXUS61 KBOX 100646
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
246 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
OVERCAST TODAY WITH COOL AND RAW CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER THEN PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT; BEST CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTH COAST BUT MAY EXPAND INTO NORTHERN CT/RI/EASTERN
MA.
* COOLER, IN THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT A COASTAL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF OVERCAST
SKIES, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AND DRIZZLE. AS EXPECTED, SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTHWEST WITH CLEAR
SKIES REMAINING OVER FAR NORTHWEST MA THIS MORNING; THIS IS THE
LOCATION WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SUN BREAKS TODAY AND
THE LOWEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN. GENERALLY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING MOISTURE OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR TO PRODUCE RAIN MAINLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND COASTAL PLAIN OF MA. THE 3K NAM
HAS BEEN MORE BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE, BUT AS OF 06Z IT
HAS NOT INITIALIZED WELL, SHOWING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS WHICH
HAVEN'T MATERIALIZED. FOR THAT REASON, THE FORECAST LEANS ON THE
GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN, WHILE PLACES LIKE THE CAPE AND ISLANDS MAY SEE TOTALS
CLOSER TO 0.25" OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL OWING TO
THE CLOUDS AND NE WINDS, TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE 60S SO IT WILL BE A
BIT RAW TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. TONIGHT THE LOW MOVES OFF AND DRIER AIR IS PULLED
IN AROUND AN INCOMING HIGH ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY AND SUNNY, THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY THE COASTAL LOW EXITS EAST LEAVING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN
ITS PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THUS,
TEMPERATURES RISE QUICKLY MAKING FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
BEFORE A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY TO START THEN A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN OR MON.
* TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS A COOLER LOW/MID LEVEL
AIRMASS ARRIVES ON N/NE FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS
AFTER SATURDAY WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE MID LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLVES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH OVERHEAD WHICH MAY BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY BUT POSSIBLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
06Z TAF UPDATE:
THROUGH 12Z: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS, BUT MODERATE ON TIMING
AND NORTHWESTWARD COVERAGE OF STRATUS.
VFR GRADUALLY DETERIORATES THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BKN/OVC MVFR
STRATUS. SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER SOUTHEAST AIRPORTS. NE WINDS 5-10 KT, AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25 KT CAPE AND ISLANDS.
TODAY: MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR (MVFR/IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS) TO START WITH SPOTTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MASS PIKE. SLOW, GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO SCT VFR THROUGH THE AFTN, BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
TO SEE IMPROVEMENT AND THEY MAY REMAIN SUB-VFR ALL DAY. NE WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT INTERIOR / 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE AND
ISLANDS, GRADUALLY BECOMING NNE/N THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EARLY MVFR-IFR FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO
ALL VFR OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
THURSDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS N 5-15 KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR TURNING MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRATUS PUSHES NORTH.
LIGHT DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR WITH POCKETS OF MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. BREEZY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SCAS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE. NE WINDS 10-
15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH TODAY, WITH SEAS AROUND 4-6 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO EARLY TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS, BUT THEN
BEGINS TO TAPER OFF EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY, QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. AREAS OF
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
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