535
FXUS61 KBOX 111228
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
828 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
BRING SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AS EXPECTED WITH THE "NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS"
SATELLITE CHANNEL SHOWING THOSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OFFSHORE. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE WE CAN SEE STUBBORN LOW
STRATUS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOIST NE SFC FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND THE LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ASOS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SUB 1000 FT CLOUD DECKS. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE, THOUGH,
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATING A
TIMING OF ROUGHLY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER CLOUDS
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IT WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NIGHT
PREVIOUS, IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY, SUNNY, AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY.
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TO END THE WEEK
KEEPING CLOUDS AND RAIN AWAY. EVEN SO, WE'LL SEE A COOLER AIRMASS
SETTLE OVERHEAD WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH LEADING TO TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE, IN THE LOW 70S FOR MOST, MID 70S FOR THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS LIKE THE CT VALLEY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRY SATURDAY THEN A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN INTO MON.
* TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LARGE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN BRINGING QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUN TO THE REGION. CHANGE WILL BE ON THE HORIZON, HOWEVER,
AS A CLEAR START TO THE DAY WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY
FROM NW TO SE AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH A PLUME
OF BETTER MOISTURE (PWATS BACK OVER 1" BY MID DAY). STILL, SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY; IT'S NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO ROUND THE BROADER TROUGH AND DROP THROUGH SNE BRINGING A BETTER
COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
THERE IS, HOWEVER, STILL DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AS
TO 1) HOW QUICKLY THIS ARRIVES AND 2) IF IT'S MORE TRANSIENT OR IF
IT STICKS AROUND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE
FLOW WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE IT WILL BE STUBBORN TO EXIT AND MEAN
UNSETTLED WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
VFR. N WINDS 5-10 KT. WINDS STRONGER FOR ACK WITH GUSTS AROUND
20-23 KTS, BUT TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MA COAST (AT LEAST
FOR BOS). FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 040-060 DEVELOPING FOR AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START, BECOMING N AFTER 04Z.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND, NE 10-15 KTS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: VFR. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SCAS FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY FOR A COMBINATION OF
MARGINAL SCA WINDS AND SEAS, BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 25 KT
NE GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER NE MA WATERS THOUGH NOT LIKELY OVER A
LARGE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING
5 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
SUNDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS
LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-
255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ256.
SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
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