714
FXUS61 KBOX 131845
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
245 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOT AS COOL TONIGHT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND, BUT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WE THEN RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* MORE CLOUDS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND TO DEVELOP. COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING HIGHER
CLOUDS, EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE STILL IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
RADIATION FOG, NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST
NIGHT, AND MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* BEST CHANCE OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM, BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN.
STILL EXPECTING SOME WEAKER LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
SUNDAY. PROJECTED INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE,
AMOUNTING TO ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. MUCH LIKE TODAY, WHILE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY CHANCE, AM THINKING MOST AREAS
REMAIN DRY. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A FEW SHOWERS
LOOKS TO BE FROM SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTH COASTAL MA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA SENDS LESS HUMID AIR OUR WAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* DRYING OUT FOR NEXT WEEK.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE EARLY, WARMING A BIT BY MID WEEK.
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER END OF THE
FORECAST SPECTRUM. WHILE THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS, AM
THINKING COVERAGE REMAINS MORE ISOLATED AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO VERY
MUCH WHERE IT DOES RAIN.
ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SETTLE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY, AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THUS, ANTICIPATING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
IT'S NOT UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT TO TRY AN GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR REGION. WENT MORE WITH THE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN AND
KEPT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. PATCHY IFR LATE IN VALLEY FOG AND
STRATUS.
SUNDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS. LOW RISK FOR A FEW AFTERNOON -SHRA
TOWARDS RI AND SE MA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT NW TO N WINDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY BR.
TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY BR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MEDIUM - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LOW
RISK FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TOWARDS THE RI AND SE MA COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT.
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOOLEY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BELK/DOOLEY
MARINE...BELK/DOOLEY
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